Wednesday, December 7, 2022

The Morning Call---early again

 

The Morning Call

 

12/8/22

I have another early morning.  So, this note is early again.

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-jump-big-tech-buck-slump-black-gold-dumps

 

Note: the S&P closed right on its 100 DMA.  That doesn’t signify a break; but it is the next worst thing.  Let’s see if it holds.

 

            Smells like liquidation.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/smells-coordinated-stock-liquidations-equity-returns-are-night-day

 

            Has the long bond gotten ahead of itself?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cdht7vrbk3

 

            Three essential elements of a trading ‘edge’.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2022/12/the-three-essential-sources-of-your.html

           

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

           

Weekly mortgage applications fell 0.9% while purchase applications were   down 3.0%.

 

Q3 nonfarm productivity rose 0.8% versus expectations of +0.6%; unit labor costs were up 2.3% versus +3.1%.

                       

                        International

 

                          Q3 EU GDP grew 0.3% versus estimates of +0.2%.

 

The preliminary October Japanese leading economic indicators  came in at 99.0 versus predictions of 98.4.

 

October German industrial production dropped 0.1% versus consensus of -0.6%.

 

The November Chinese trade balance was $99.0 billion versus projections of $98.4 billion.

 

                        Other

 

                          US mortgage rates fall for fourth week in a row.

                          https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-07/us-mortgage-rates-fall-a-fourth-week-longest-stretch-since-2019?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          Credit card debt hits all time high as savings rate plummets.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/credit-card-debt-hits-all-time-high-just-us-savings-rate-plummets-17-year-low

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Memo to congress: please stop spending money that you don’t have.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2022/12/the-huge-problem-of-transfer-payments.html

 

            Inflation

 

Don’t underestimate inflation’s threat to the Fed’s credibility---the author has a tad bit more confidence in the Fed’s courage than I do.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/dont-underestimate-inflation-threat-to-feds-credibility/#more-19259

 

              Wholesale car prices down slightly in November.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/12/wholesale-used-car-prices-declined.html

 

              Skyrocketing unaffordability of US new homes.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/12/the-skyrocketing-unaffordability-of-us.html#.Y5D6fnbMKUk

 

            Recession

 

              Recession expectations all over the place.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/behigh

 

            Geopolitics

 

There has been a lot of MSM news positing how poorly Russia is doing in Ukraine.  Here is a counterpoint from a reporter with a lot of knowledge and experience in Russia.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/12/russias-general-patience-and-the-pause-that-refreshes.html

 

            China

 

              Xi folds.  Zero covid restrictions lifted.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/07/world/asia/china-zero-covid-protests.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            The latest from Howard Marks---long (as always) but worth the read.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/12/07/what-really-matters

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

General Dynamics (NYSE:GD) declares $1.26/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Do you really need 24/7 financial advice?

            https://ritholtz.com/2022/12/24-7-financial-advice/

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

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