The Morning Call--Beware of today's quad witching liquidity vortex

 

The Morning Call

 

12/16/22

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/soft-landing-seers-slayed-amid-macro-meltdown-stocks-dump-dollar-jumps

 

            Beware of today’s quad witching liquidity vortex.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/liquidations-tomorrows-liquidity-vacuum-may-spark-135-billion-forced-selling

 

            How often is the Market down in consecutive years?

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/12/how-often-is-the-market-down-in-consecutive-years

 

The latest ten year Treasury fair value estimate.

https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-15-december-2022/

 

            Keep your eye on the dollar.

            https://allstarcharts.com/keeping-eye-king-dollar/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

November UK retail sales fell 0.4% versus consensus of +0.3%; ex fuel, they were down 0.3% versus +0.3%; December consumer confidence was -42 versus -43;the December YoY manufacturing PMI was 44.7 versus 46.3; the service PMI was 50.0 versus 48.5; composite PMI was 49.0 versus 48.0.

 

November EU CPI was down 0.1%, in line; the December flash manufacturing PMI was 47.8 versus 471; the services PMI was 49.1 versus 48.5; the composite PMI was 48.8 versus 48.0.

 

The December Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 48.8 versus estimates of 49.1; the services PMI was 51.7 versus 50.3; the composite PMI was 50.0 versus 48.9; the December German flash manufacturing PMI was 47.4 versus 46.3; the services PMI was 49.0 versus 46.3; the composite PMI was 48.9 versus 46.5.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Powell and the Market don’t agree.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/jerome-powells-grim-inflation-outlook-is-at-odds-with-markets-11671072877?mod=economy_lead_story

 

            Inflation

 

              Housing and inflation.

              https://www.pragcap.com/three-things-i-think-i-think-housing-risks/

 

     Bottom line

 

            The Market math for 2023.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/valuation-math-suggests-difficult-markets-2023

 

            The latest from Howard Marks (must read).

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/12/14/sea-change

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Accenture (NYSE:ACN) declares $1.12/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

Williams-Sonoma (NYSE:WSM) declares $0.78/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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