The Morning Call
12/13/22
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-panic-bid-ahead-cpi-bitcoin-bonds-bullion-dumped
Note: the S&P
bounced nicely off of its 100 DMA.
Resistance exists at its 200 DMA (~4035)---a level that it has been unable
to breach since April. How it handles
this DMA should tell us a lot about the underlying strength of the Market. If you are thinking about buying stocks, I wouldn’t
do anything until that issue is resolved.
Time to buy gold?
https://allstarcharts.com/things-are-getting-real/
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Month to date
retail chain store sales grew slightly faster than in the prior week.
The November small
business optimism index came in at 91.9 versus forecasts of 90.4.
November CPI was
up 0.1% versus expectations of +0.3%; core CPI was +0.2% versus +0.3%.
International
October YoY UK
average earnings were up 6.1% versus estimates of +6.2%; the November
unemployment rate of 3.7%, in line.
November German
CPI declined 0.5%, in line.
The December EU
economic sentiment index was reported at -23.6 versus predictions of -25.7; the
December German economic sentiment index was -23.3 versus -26.4.
Other
The
Fed
The argument for a quick ‘pivot’.
https://www.cato.org/blog/why-fed-further-inverting-yield-curve-4
The interest rate paths of the US and EU are
about to diverge.
Investors are
increasingly confident that the Fed will pull off a ‘soft landing’. And it might.
But it will be the first time in history that it has ever done so. So, to bet on a ‘soft landing’ defies the
odds. Which is not to say that it won’t
happen. But even if it does, what kind
of earnings growth should one expect with (1) a national debt that far exceeds
GDP and (2) a Fed balance sheet that sooner or later has to be downsized? And what kind of multiple do you put on that
likely sub-par growth?
This author disagrees with the ‘soft landing’
scenario.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/your-second-last-chance-get-it-wrong-2022
Bottom line
For the bulls.
Counterpoint.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/12/12/the-bull-case-has-two-problems
The outlook for
bonds is improving.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/09/business/bond-market-economy-investing.html
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Oracle press release (NYSE:ORCL): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.21 beats by $0.04.
Revenue
of $12.28B (+18.5% Y/Y) beats by $260M.
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) declares $0.32/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What
I am reading today
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