The Morning Call--The days of low interest rates are over

 

The Morning Call

 

4/30/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yen-yellen-yank-stocks-bonds-dollar-otherwise-quiet-day

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The April Dallas Fed manufacturing index was -14.5 versus estimates of -11.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/04/29/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-continue-to-worsen-in-april

 

 

                                                    The Q1 employment cost index was up 1.2% versus predictions of +1.0%.

 

                        International

 

Q1 EU flash GDP growth was +0.3% versus projections of +0.1%; Q1 flash CPI was +0.6%, in line.

 

Q1 German flash GDP growth was +0.2% versus consensus of +0.1%; March retail sales were up 1.8% versus +1.3%; the April unemployment rate was 5.9%, in line.

 

The March Japanese unemployment rate was 2.6% versus expectations of 2.5%; March preliminary industrial production was +3.8% versus +3.4%; March preliminary retail sales fell 1.2% versus +0.5%; March YoY housing starts were -12.8% versus -7.6%; March YoY construction orders were up 31.4% versus +4.2%.

 

The April Chinese manufacturing PMI was 50.4 versus forecasts of 50.3; the April nonmanufacturing PMI was 51.2 versus 52.2; the April composite PMI was 51.7 versus 52.4; the April Chinese Caixin (small business) manufacturing PMI was 51.4 versus 51.0.

 

 

                        Other

 

                          Hotel occupancy currently lower on a year over year basis.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/04/hotels-occupancy-rate-decreased-03-year.html

 

            The Fed

 

              Even if the Fed cuts, the days of low interest rates are over.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/why-high-interest-rates-could-be-here-for-the-long-run-c6670448

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The Treasury Department releases Q2/3 borrowing estimates.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/treasury-publishes-borrowing-estimates-q3-which-sneak-below-median-estimate

 

              Why are we gambling with America’s future?

              https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/25/opinion/us-federal-debt.html

 

              The education scam.

              https://issuesinsights.com/2024/04/25/these-are-the-students-biden-wants-you-to-bail-out/

 

  Navigating major transitions in an uncertain economy.

              https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/us-growth-slows-while-inflation-remains-fueling-deeper-global-uncertainty-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2024-04

 

     Bottom line

 

            Ain’t pessimism great.

            https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/p/aint-pessimism-great

 

            US data blurs picture for bond investors.

            https://www.ft.com/content/202c4e5a-15f0-425b-b688-c00a1b0ce39c

 

            The latest form Goldman Sachs.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-warns-another-treasury-var-shock-could-spark-stock-meltdown

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Illinois Tool Works Inc. press release (NYSE:ITW): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.44 beats by $0.08.

Revenue of $4B (flat Y/Y) misses by $30M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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