The Morning Call--Suddenly bad news is bad news

 

The Morning Call

 

4/6/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Wednesday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/banks-big-tech-breakdown-mesters-flip-flop-sparks-dovish-collapse-rates

 

Stocks are trending.

https://allstarcharts.com/it-would-be-weird/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 228,000 versus estimates of 220,000.

 

  The March services PMI came in at 52.6 versus projections of 53.8; the   composite PMI was 52.3 versus 53.3.

 

 The March ISM nonmanufacturing index was 51.2 versus consensus of   54.5.     

                         https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/04/ism-services-index-decreases-to-512-in.html

                                   

March total vehicle sales were 14.8 million versus expectations of 14.5 million.

                                     

                        International

 

The March Chinese Caixin services PMI was 57.8 versus forecasts of 54.8; the composite PMI was 54.5, in line.

 

March German industrial production rose 2.0% versus estimates of +0.1%; the March construction PMI was 42.9 versus 47.9.

 

The March EU construction PMI was 45.0 versus predictions of 49.1; the March UK construction PMI was 50.7 versus 53.5.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

             

              Central banks at odds over rate hikes/cuts.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-zealand-shocks-with-big-rate-rise-as-some-central-banks-pause-92efd793?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The insovnecy of the social security system.

              https://issuesinsights.com/2023/04/04/social-security-is-in-far-worse-shape-than-you-think/

 

            Recession

 

              Update on the recession probability index.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-us-facing-a-slower-moving-recession-threat-part-iii/#more-19966

 

              Counterpoint.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/slowing-slowing-gone

 

              Thirty-year mortgage rate falls to seven week low.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-05/us-30-year-mortgage-rate-falls-to-seven-week-low-of-6-4?srnd=premium&leadSource=uverify%20wall&sref=loFkkPMQ

                       

 

              Q1 apartment house sales drop 74%.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/apartment-building-sales-drop-74-the-most-in-14-years-9a80aa48?mod=economy_lead_pos4

 

              Small businesses file for bankruptcy at record pace.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/small-businesses-file-bankruptcy-record-pace-surpassing-covid-crash

 

            Oil

 

              The price of reshaping the Saudi economy.

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabias-oil-production-cuts-reflect-cost-of-reshaping-economy-7fb6e09c?mod=economy_lead_pos1&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=253104342&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--JmkACM3nNoQrd1ofrb88bZT-opsvC5tn9la3m_sA06r-v5QlHAfqD-qZphdAMm8wHFfNfVjBLnBRj4YsmJCkDB4dt1g&utm_content=253104342&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

    Bottom line

 

            Suddenly bad news is bad news (must read).

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/recession-playbook-goldman-jpm-says-weve-entered-bad-news-bad-news-regime

 

            March dividends by the numbers.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/04/dividends-by-numbers-in-march-2023-and.html#.ZC2oknbMKUk

 

            Update on the Buffett indicator.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/04/05/buffett-valuation-indicator-march-2023-update

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The point of an experiment.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/no-no-no-this-isnt-the-point-of-an-experiment-at-all

 

 

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