The Morning Call---Money supply growth falls to 50 year low

The Morning Call

 

4/21/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/debt-ceiling-fears-fugly-data-fedspeak-slam-stocks-crypto-gold-bonds-bid

 

Sell low, buy high.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/sell-low-buy-high-punters-did-it-again

 

            Further downside?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/three-reasons-why-there-could-be-some-further-downside

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          March existing home sales fell 2.4% versus projections of -4.2%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/04/20/existing-home-sales-unexpectedly-retreat-in-march

                                                                        

The March leading economic indicators fell 1.2% versus estimates of -0.6%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/04/20/cb-leading-economic-index-recession-forecasted-to-start-mid-2023

 

                        International

 

March Japanese CPI was +0.3% versus consensus of +0.1%; the April flash manufacturing PMI was 49.5 versus 50.0; the flash services PMI was 54.9 versus 55.1; the flash composite PMI was 52.5 versus 53.2.

 

March UK retail sales fell 0.9% versus predictions of -0.5%; the April flash manufacturing PMI was 46.6 versus 48.5; the flash services PMI was 54.9 versus 52.9; the flash composite PMI was 53.9 versus 52.5.

 

The April German flash manufacturing PMI was 44.0 versus forecasts of 45.7; the flash services PMI was 55.7 versus 53.3; the flash composite PMI was 53.9 versus 52.7; the April EU flash manufacturing PMI was 45.5 versus 48.0; the flash services PMI was 56.6 versus 54.5; the flash composite PMI was 54.4 versus 53.7.

 

                        Other

                 

                       

                  The Fed

 

                    From the Fed whisperer: NY Fed head signals support for another rate hike.

                    https://www.wsj.com/articles/top-fed-official-signals-support-for-may-interest-rate-increase-a7c9a531

 

                    Money supply growth falls to 50 year low.

                    https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/money-supply-growth-fell-50-year-low-feb-will-fed-panic

 

                  Fiscal Policy

 

                    Learning from failure.

                    https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/04/learning-from-failure.html#.ZEF04XbMLSw

 

                    The history of destructive capital gains taxes and inflation.

   https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/apr/17/destructive-capital-gains-taxes-and-inflation/?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=254950261&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--BkqrM2ewDrst3bu1R7ulYdwOjMDs4BHTD7MD-kNALpOVPecGL0jPshkdnlY3vgKymnjEO1fYY5IjF2bzbh-rI7gaIFg&utm_content=254950261&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

Recession

 

  The other canaries just haven’t shown up yet.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/other-canaries-coal-mine-just-havent-shown-yet

 

The Debt Ceiling

 

  The GOP’s new plan.

  https://www.capitalspectator.com/political-calculus-debt-ceiling-edition/#more-20043

              

 

  Tax receipts are leaning towards the worst case for the debt ceiling scenario.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tax-receipts-are-leaning-toward-worst-case-debt-ceiling-scenario

 

Geopolitics

                       

The reality behind the propaganda about Ukraine (this from my favorite left-wing blogger).

                    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/04/leaks-reveal-reality-behind-u-s-propaganda-in-ukraine.html

               

                               

                        A lot to worry about.

                    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hairs-breath-damp-squid

 

    Bottom line.

 

            Don’t forget about bonds.

            https://disciplinefunds.com/2023/04/19/the-60-40-portfolio-is-alive-and-well/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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