The Morning Call--The jelly donut policy

 

The Morning Call

 

4/11/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-bond-yields-buck-bid-gold-skids

 

Tech technical.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/reflections-tech-technicals

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

March consumer inflation expectations came in at 4.7% versus estimates of 4.0%.

 

The March small business optimism index was 90.1 versus predictions of 89.0.

 

                        International

 

                          February EU retail sales were down 0.8%, in line.

 

March Chinese CPI was -0.3% versus consensus of 0.0%; March YoY PPI was -2.5%, in line; March vehicle sales were up 9.7% versus +1.9%.

 

March Japanese YoY machine tool orders fell 15.2% versus expectations of -17.0%.

 

                        Other

                

                 Vehicle sales per capita.

                 https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/04/10/vehicle-sales-per-capita-as-of-march-2023

 

                 Update on big four economic indicators.

                 https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/04/10/the-big-four-economic-indicators-march-employment

 

The Fed

 

  One year ahead inflation expectations continue to decline.

  https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/04/one-year-ahead-inflation-expectations-continue-to-decline

 

              Will nominal rates peak with real rates still negative?

  https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/another-fed-milestone-policy-peak-with-negative-real-rates-2023-04-06/?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=253623892&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9NdzixSqZfbYNX1n9CYQMYGo177Iu8cwyll3NucAjfOaHcOMHz66Msyr1_YorXIdWSRCMyWRBf_tR2vNuGG8361ReOPg&utm_content=253623892&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

              The consensus appears to be that the global rate hike cycle is near the end.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-09/end-may-be-in-sight-for-global-rate-hike-cycle-as-fed-nears-peak?srnd=economics-v2&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

                          The jelly donut policy (must read).

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/david-einhorn-and-feds-jelly-donut-policy-10-years-later

                            

 

            Inflation

 

              Food prices are the new inflation threat.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/food-prices-are-new-inflation-threat-for-governments-and-central-banks-969e7483?mod=economy_lead_pos1

 

            Recession

 

              The slowdown in consumer spending has moved from theory to reality.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-slowdown-consumer-spending-moved-theory-reality-last-2-weeks

 

     Bottom line.

 

            The latest from BofA.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-rally-3800-4200-has-likely-run-its-course-sell-last-rate-hike

 

            Corporate earnings season (starts this week) will be the next test for equities.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/investors-view-corporate-earnings-season-as-next-test-for-stocks-9d9a1775?mod=hp_lead_pos4&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=253623892&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-86KZhdCKzSJr7hR1XVeCQkrXwMQVVRntEM2tZTw_lBIiWfY2nIDK3DcY7kU-XTxUdwzwvbPpI6xjxp_pwFXeZnCVdzIw&utm_content=253623892&utm_source=hs_email

 

            Valuable advice from Traderfeed.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2023/04/what-makes-for-success-five.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            A word of optimism from Barry Ritholtz.

            https://ritholtz.com/2023/04/getting-so-much-better-all-the-time/

 

 

                        The gambler who beat roulette.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2023-how-to-beat-roulette-gambler-figures-it-out/?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

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