The Morning Call---Inflation and recession are stoking investor confusion

 

The Morning Call

 

4/28/23

 

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Thursday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-vix-dumped-bitcoin-stocks-pumped-stagflation-signals-soar

 

Three other charts worth watching.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/three-charts-we-are-watching

 

The fragile rally.

https://www.ft.com/content/b760c871-6812-4409-ba76-1e4a67f8b7e7

 

The four most concerning trends in the Market.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpm-delta-one-these-are-four-most-concerning-trends-todays-market-and-how-trade-them

 

The world is not dumping dollars.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/world-is-not-dumping-its-dollars-2023-04-26/?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=255918425&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--eEWXuOTaN8Omii1LllmGPotOHh3V3BfNWqAbxrOlI_QQ113Barrbe7uyUTTuEWQL-NReacRzX5gB0HbVPFThvAN--1A&utm_content=255918425&utm_source=hs_email

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                           

March personal income rose 0.3% versus expectations of +0.2%; March personal spending was flat versus -0.1%; the PCE price index was +0.1% versus +0.3%; the core PCE price index was +0.3%, in line.

 

                            March pending home sales fell 5.3% versus forecasts of +0.5%.

                            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/04/27/pending-home-sales-unexpectedly-drop-5-2-in-march

 

The April Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at 21 versus predictions of +3.

 

                        International

                            

The March Japanese unemployment rate was 2.8% versus consensus of 2.5%; March industrial production was +0.8% versus +0.5%; March retail sales were +0.6% versus -0.6%; March YoY housing starts were -3.2% versus -4.3%; March YoY construction orders were -4.1% versus +10.0%; April YoY CPI was +3.5% versus +3.1%; April YoY core CPI was +3.5% versus +3.2%.

 

Q1 flash German GDP growth was 0.0% versus projections of +0.2%; April CPI was +0.4% versus +0.6%; the April unemployment rate was 5.6% in line.

 

Q1 flash EU GDP growth was +0.1% versus forecasts of +0.2%.

 

                        Other

 

The impact of inflation and rising interest rates on the median home mortgage payment.

https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/04/inflation-interest-rates-and-median-new.html#.ZEq2KXbMLSw

 

            The Fed

 

              Uncertainty inside the Fed.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-27/powell-faces-pushback-inside-fed-over-need-to-cool-wage-gains?srnd=premium&leadSource=uverify%20wall&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Biden’s new mortgage plan---punishes those who pay their bills on time.

              https://jeffjacoby.com/26926/your-credit-score-is-excellent-so-prepare-to-be

 

            Recession

 

              The Godot recession.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/04/the-godot-recession-2

 

              Best guess on recession start date.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/04/best-guess-on-recession-start

 

              What happened to those housing doom predictions?

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/04/27/how-bout-those-housing-doom-predictions

 

 

            The Banking System

 

              Banking problems may be the tip of the debt iceberg.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/banking-problems-may-be-tip-of-debt-iceberg-262b6d0e?mod=economy_lead_pos3

 

    Bottom line

 

            Inflation and recession are stoking investor confusion.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/world-is-not-dumping-its-dollars-2023-04-.26/?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=255918425&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--eEWXuOTaN8Omii1LllmGPotOHh3V3BfNWqAbxrOlI_QQ113Barrbe7uyUTTuEWQL-NReacRzX5gB0HbVPFThvAN--1A&utm_content=255918425&utm_source=hs_email

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Exxon Mobil press release (NYSE:XOM): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.83 beats bt $.23by $0.23. Revenue of $86.56B (-4.4% Y/Y) misses by $3.51B.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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