The Morning Call--M2 growth is slowing significantly

The Morning Call

 

4/27/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

             https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bitcoin-jump-bonds-bank-stocks-dump-us-default-risk-soars

 

            Breadth continues to narrow.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/verge-collapse-market-breadth-weakest-ever-stock-leadership-narrowest-record

 

            Buybacks waning

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/buybacks-waning

 

            Sell in May?

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/sell-may-in-april-and-go-away/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Tuesday%20Takes%20Sell%20May%20In%20April%20And%20Go%20Away&utm_content=Tuesday%20Takes%20Sell%20May%20In%20April%20And%20Go%20Away+CID_499b91e117cea2c16c852553821f6121&utm_source=RIA%20Email%20Marketing%20Software&utm_term=READ%20MORE

           

            Druckenmiller short the dollar.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/druckenmillers-only-high-conviction-trade-short-weaponized-dollar

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The initial estimate of Q1 GDP growth was 1.1% versus expectations of 2.0%; the price index was 4.0% versus 3.7%; real consumer spending was 3.7% versus 0.7%.     

                    

                         April initial jobless claims totaled 236,000 versus estimates of 248,000.   

 

                        International

                         

The February Japanese leading economic indicators were reported at 98.0 versus predictions of 97.7. 

 

The April EU economic sentiment index was 99.3 versus consensus of 99.9; the industrial sentiment index was -2.6 versus +0.1; the services sentiment index was 10.5 versus 9.4; consumer confidence was -17.5 versus -17.9.

                      

                       Other

                     

                        Update on housing sales and prices.

                        https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/04/upward-momentum-for-us-new-home-market.html#.ZElcenbMLSw

 

            The Fed

 

M2 growth is slowing significantly (must read). As an aside, a shrinking money supply (i.e., liquidity) may be good for inflation but it is not good for stocks

              http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/04/m2-update-return-to-normal-by-year-end.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              More government interference in product innovation.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2023/04/26/offense_is_required_to_contend_with_china_not_authoritarian_defense_895778.html

 

            Recession

 

               So far the fallout from the banking crisis has been limited.

               https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/25/the-banking-crisis-is-having-a-slow-burn-impact-on-the-economy.html

 

               Serious mortgage delinquency declined in March.

               https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/04/freddie-mac-mortgage-serious.html

 

               Commodity bell weather signaling recession.

               https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/commodities-bellwether-flashes-us-recession-warning

 

            The Debt Ceiling

 

              House republicans appear have reached an agreement on a debt limit bill.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/there-appears-be-deal-mccarthy-makes-late-night-concessions-48-trillion-debt-limit

 

              Unexpected last-minute jump in tax receipts.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/unexpected-last-minute-jump-tax-receipts-gives-us-1-month-delay-until-debt-ceiling-crisis

 

            The Banking System

 

              The problems aren’t over.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-25/first-republic-said-to-weigh-up-to-100-billion-in-asset-sales?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    Bottom line.

 

            Be careful who you listen to.

            https://www.safalniveshak.com/influencers-are-not-the-problem/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

C.H. Robinson Worldwide press release (NASDAQ:CHRW): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.98 in-line.

Revenue of $4.6B (-32.4% Y/Y) misses by $200M.

 

AbbVie press release (NYSE:ABBV): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.46 misses by $0.03.

Revenue of $12.23B (-9.7% Y/Y) in-line.

 

Mastercard press release (NYSE:MA): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.80 beats by $0.09.

Revenue of $5.7B (+9.6% Y/Y) beats by $60M.

 

Altria press release (NYSE:MO): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.18 beats by $0.01.

Revenue of $4.76B (-1.2% Y/Y) misses by $130M.

           

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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