The Morning Call---Market confusion

 

The Morning Call

 

4/12/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

          Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-squeezed-late-day-odte-profit-taking-bitcoin-storms-10-month-highs

 

            You need to have bulls in a bull market.

            https://allstarcharts.com/you-need-bulls-in-bull-markets/

 

            Bullishness is missing---which is a good thing.

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/bullishness-remains-missing-which-is-a-good-thing/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Tuesday%20Takes%20The%20Market%20Bottomed%20In%20October%20Now%20What&utm_content=Tuesday%20Takes%20The%20Market%20Bottomed%20In%20October%20Now%20What+CID_d1fbec0b691156c7915a51aef2a755a1&utm_source=RIA%20Email%20Marketing%20Software&utm_term=READ%20MORE

 

            Gold tailwinds.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-tailwinds-rising-it-enters-real-yield-sweet-spot

 

The credit versus equity fear gap.

https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/credit-vs-equity-fear-gap

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                           

Weekly mortgage applications were up 5.3% while purchase applications were up 7.8%.

                           

Month to date retail chain store sales grew much slower than in the prior week.

 

March CPI was up 0.1% versus forecasts of up 0.2%; core CPI was up 0.4%, in line.    

                            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/feds-impact-core-inflation-may-be-too-little-too-late

                                    

                        International

                         

                          March Japanese PPI came in at 0.0%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          The latest Q1 nowcasts.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-gdp-growth-nowcast-edges-higher-for-upcoming-q2-report/

 

                          US/China trade at lowest level since pandemic.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/04/us-china-trade-falls-to-lowest-level.html#.ZDWYn3bMKUk

 

            The Fed

 

              Markets now pricing in 80% of rate hike.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-10/fed-swaps-see-about-80-chance-of-a-quarter-point-may-rate-hike?srnd=markets-vp&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=253776992&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9BEv2kb4psySaCFFpcrxXsMto4iEMEyxyRMOJJSYtq0947m6HfPT6ybKOxCsuuh-9YdJvCRtoTYk2bzHZLTw8o3upg5g&utm_content=253776992&utm_source=hs_email&sref=loFkkPMQ#xj4y7vzkg

 

  Tumbling money supply alarms some economists.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-11/tumbling-money-supply-alarms-economists-who-foresaw-inflation?srnd=premium&leadSource=uverify%20wall&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            The Banking System

 

              What is to blame for the banking crisis?

              https://www.aier.org/article/whats-to-blame-for-the-banking-crisis/

 

     Bottom line.

 

            Historical comparisons (must read).

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/04/10/weekly-market-pulse-history-lessons/

 

Market confusion.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-04-09/bond-market-flashes-us-recession-warning-while-other-investors-call-false-alarm?srnd=markets-vp&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=253776992&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--KLvzm3JwkK2biyBymRljC26t8cGPVlglkJ_AKXeuQbmXLS9cqqxnI-APHiWG2uqfIjD7yqjpVqPHPUGFloyewg1Gs3g&utm_content=253776992&utm_source=hs_email&sref=loFkkPMQ#xj4y7vzkg

 

The results of the NY Fed’s survey are not positive for either credit availability or inflation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/10/outlook-for-credit-access-hits-record-low-while-inflation-expectations-jump.html?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=253776992&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--TNcZBi6o1iBVAh_ukn_uEKZn55pK_QjKIYjYP2M0snGzuz4A66d37vY6GSMI7oxHuqqCr_xKjw7vZAuEt_bjIRbduuw&utm_content=253776992&utm_source=hs_email

 

US Chamber of Commerce study indicates corporations are increasingly concerned about government regulations negatively impacting profitability.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/government-posing-greater-risk-to-corporate-profits-chamber-study-finds-c6699168?mod=business_lead_pos3

 

The earnings recession is about to begin.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-earnings-recession-is-about-to-begin-213005398.html

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The cost of equality.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/the-laffer-curve-really-does-exist-no-really

 

 

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