The Morning Call--The debt ceiling is not the problem

 

The Morning Call

 

4/26/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

                       

            Tuesday in the charts.

             https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/zombie-banks-soaring-usa-risk-spark-plunge-stocks-bond-yields

 

            The trend is still up.

            https://allstarcharts.com/why-are-investors-so-scared/

 

            Or not.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/i-am-tactically-bearish-goldmans-flows-guru-warns-things-have-changed-today

 

                Market leadership narrowing.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/crowding-mania

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

  Weekly mortgage applications were up 3.7% while purchase applications were up 4.6%.

                                   

                          March new home sales rose 9.6% versus predictions of +1.1%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/04/25/new-home-sales-surge-9-6-in-march

 

   March durable goods orders rose 3.2% versus consensus of +0.7%; ex transportation, they were up 0.3% versus -0.2%.

 

                          April consumer confidence came in at 101.3 versus expectations of 104.0.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/04/25/consumer-confidence-declined-in-april

                                       

  The April Richmond Fed manufacturing index was -10    versus estimates of +2.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/04/25/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-deteriorated-in-april

                                                           

                        International

 

May German consumer confidence was reported at -25.7 versus projections of -27.9.

 

                        Other

 

                          The latest Q1 GDP nowcasts.

                          https://www.capitalspectator.com/moderate-growth-expected-for-thursdays-us-q1-gdp-report/#more-20064

 

              The global economy’s slow-motion reset.

              https://www.axios.com/2023/04/21/global-economy-slow-reset

 

Recession

 

  Diesel prices signal warning for the US economy.

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/sliding-diesel-prices-signal-warning-for-u-s-economy-c6400724?mod=economy_lead_story

 

  Commercial real estate woes run deeper than in past downturns.

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/commercial-real-estate-woes-run-deeper-than-in-past-downturns-e0c1f2b3?mod=economy_lead_pos3

 

The Debt Ceiling

 

  The debt ceiling is not the problem.

  https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3966227-the-debt-ceiling-is-the-least-of-our-nations-fiscal-concerns/

           

  Bond market sounds the alarm over the debt ceiling negotiations.

              https://www.axios.com/2023/04/25/bond-market-alarm-debt-ceiling-negotiations

 

     Bottom line

 

            Parsing the economic and market outlook.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/04/24/weekly-market-pulse-this-too-shall-pass/

 

            With all that cash, can’t Buffett find something to buy?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buffetts-berkshire-awash-cash-cant-find-much-buy

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Automatic Data Processing press release (NASDAQ:ADP): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.52 beats by $0.08.

Revenue of $4.9B (+8.9% Y/Y) beats by $20M.

 

General Dynamics press release (NYSE:GD): Q1 GAAP EPS of $2.64 beats by $0.06.

Revenue of $9.9B (+5.3% Y/Y) beats by $600M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/04/quotation-of-the-day-4248.h

 

            Compared to what?

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/to-repeat-mr-sowells-question-compared-to-what

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.