The Morning Call---Increasing signs of a rapid decline in loan volume

 

The Morning Call

 

4/5/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bad-news-no-longer-good-news-jacked-jobs-data-jolts-markets

 

            Five technical reasons that we are sprinting to a new bull market.

            https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2023/04/5-technical-reasons-tech-stocks-are-sprinting-into-a-new-bull-market/

 

            Are rates going lower?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/lower-longer

 

            Maybe not.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/move-moved-higher

 

            Seven signs of growing de-dollarization.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/here-are-7-signs-global-de-dollarization-has-just-shifted-overdrive

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications declined 4.1% while purchase applications were down 3.5%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew faster than in the prior week.

 

February job openings (JOLTS) totaled 9.9 million versus forecasts of 10.4 million.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/04/04/february-jolts-update-job-openings-fall-to-21-month-low

 

February factory orders fell 0.7% versus expectations of -0.5%; ex transportation, they were down 0.3% versus -0.8%.

                       

 The February trade balance was -$70.5 billion versus predictions of -$69.0  billion.

 

The March ADP private payroll report showed jobs increased by 145,000 versus consensus of 200,000.

 

                        International

 

February German factor orders were up 4.8% versus projections of +0.3%; the March services PMI was 53.7 versus 53.9; the March composite PMI was 52.6, in line.

 

The March Japanese services PMI was 55.0 versus estimates of 54.2; the composite PMI was 52.9 versus 51.9; the March EU services PMI was 55.0 versus 55.6; the composite PMI was 53.7 versus 54.1.

 

The March UK services PMI was 52.9 versus forecasts of 52.8; the composite PMI was 52.2, in line; March YoY new car sales were up 18.2% versus +19.5%.

 

                        Other

 

                          February median household income increased.

                          https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/04/median-household-income-in-february-2023.html#.ZCxbj3bMKUk

                       

                          Heavy truck sales up in March.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/04/heavy-truck-sales-up-7-year-over-year.html

 

                          Mixed signals from the JP Morgan global manufacturing survey.

                          https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/5c9ad0804dd34d4ab5e1af7f16072fef

 

            The Fed

 

              The Fed’s credibility problem.

  https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/fed-credibility-crisis-lost-confidence-around-the-world-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2023-04?utm_source=project-syndicate.org&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=authnote

 

 

            Recession

 

              No recession as of the end of February.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/04/business-cycle-indicators-as-of-aprils-start

 

              Interest rate on car loans highest since 2008.

  https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/auto-loan-interest-rates-hit-highest-level-since-2008-and-drive-record-share-of-1-000-monthly-payments-in-q1--according-to-edmunds-301787981.html

 

                

               Early signs of rapidly declining loan volume (must read).

               https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-economy-grinds-halt-loan-demand-sales-crater-aftermath-bank-crisis

                      

 

            The Banking System

 

              Central banks’ dilemma.

              https://blogs.tslombard.com/2008_ptsd_vs_the_ghosts_of_the1970s

 

              Listen to bankers not Yellen to fix problem.

  https://nypost.com/2023/04/01/listen-to-bankers-to-fix-bank-crisis-not-biden-or-yellen/?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=253020230&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9iLgTJhvoncugXYvPtEs_QZmeDkj1Yzdtip6AOqkW8Tvwp72PxeohrsYYuTz_nninM8RnUYXmywFUWr7ZlCzE0ed5JIA&utm_content=253020230&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

            Oil

 

              Morgan Stanley cuts oi price forecast.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/morgan-stanley-cuts-oil-price-forecast-after-opec-decision

 

     Bottom line

 

            Was October the bottom?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market-bottomed-october-now-what

 

            What is wrong with T bills?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/04/03/weekly-market-pulse-whats-wrong-with-t-bills/

 

            Update on valuation.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/04/04/p-e10-march-2023-update

 

            Own something.

            https://mebfaber.com/2023/04/01/what-if-you-owned-no-us-stocks/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

FedEx (NYSE:FDX) declares $1.26/share quarterly dividend, 9.6% increase from prior dividend of $1.15.

What I am reading today

 

            The tragic US choice to prioritize war over peace.

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/04/the-tragic-u-s-choice-to-prioritize-war-over-peacemaking.html

           

 

 

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