The Morning Call---Asset mispricing in a stagflation-lite regime

The Morning Call

 

4/20/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/regional-banks-rip-higher-inflation-spooks-bonds-bitcoin-bullion

 

            The fallacy of the ‘cash on the sidelines’ narrative.

https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-cash-hoard-of-2023-and-the-sideline-money-myth/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Tuesday%20Takes%20The%20Cash%20Hoard%20Of%202023%20And%20The%20Sideline%20Money%20Myth&utm_content=Tuesday%20Takes%20The%20Cash%20Hoard%20Of%202023%20And%20The%20Sideline%20Money%20Myth+CID_4e8acd7aba0e5db9d45bcd0a28ae6e6a&utm_source=RIA%20Email%20Marketing%20Software&utm_term=Real%20Investment%20Report

 

The gold tradeoff.

https://savantwealth.com/savant-views-news/article/the-tradeoff-all-that-glitters-is-not-gold/

 

More on the potential of the dollar losing its reserve currency status.

https://www.ft.com/content/72c27c26-f1d6-4a4b-be50-d6bf70c3546f

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 245,000 versus estimates of 240,000.

 

The April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at -1.5 versus projections of -11.9.

 

                        International

 

The February EU trade balance was E-4.6 billion versus consensus of E-11.9 billion; the March Japanese trade balance was Y-754 billion versus Y-1294 billion.

 

March German PPI was -2.6% versus expectations of -0.5%.

 

                        Other

 

              Update on big four economic indicators.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/04/19/the-big-four-march-real-retail-sales-down-1-0

 

              Update on the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP nowcast.

              https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

 

              March architecture billings went up slightly.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/04/aia-architecture-billings-slightly.html

 

The Fed

 

The Fed released its latest Beige Book report.  While the numbers didn’t change much, it did note a tightening in credit standards and an increase in liquidity concerns.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/beige-book-sees-slowdown-employment-and-inflation-sharp-tightening-credit-standards-and

 

Fiscal Policy

 

  Where did your tax dollars go?

  https://www.cato.org/blog/where-did-tax-dollars-go-federal-budget-breakdown

 

The Debt Ceiling

 

  Th first of many fear mongering outlooks.

  https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/18/business/economy/debt-limit-wall-street.html

                

              The second: Goldman warns of fallout if debt ceiling compromise isn’t reached.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-debt-ceiling-debacle-looms-goldman-warns-stock-bond-yield-weakness-dollar-boost

 

              Debt ceiling accounting calculus.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/accounting-calculus-debt-ceiling-edition/

 

              The Fed weighs in on a government default.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/04/the-fed-on-possible-macroeconomic.html

 

            The Banking System

 

             More on solving the problem of ‘moral hazard’.

              https://coppolacomment.substack.com/p/we-need-to-talk-about-banks-again

 

     Bottom line

 

            Asset mispricing in a stagflation-lite regime.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mispricings-everywhere-we-enter-stagflation-lite

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Why the myth of Atlantis just won’t die.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/premium/article/atlantis-myth-plato-archaeology-false?rid=7912D7310BBCEE9B958D4BEDCFEC5AE5&cmpid=org%3Dngp%3A%3Amc%3Dcrm-email%3A%3Asrc%3Dngp%3A%3Acmp%3Deditorial%3A%3Aadd%3DDaily_NL_Wednesday_History_20230419&loggedin=true&rnd=1681927585189

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/04/quotation-of-the-day-4241.html

           

 

 

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