The Morning Call--How inflation was created

 

The Morning Call

 

3/31/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-gains-banks-buckle-again

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Regional Fed bank manufacturing index overview.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/03/29/march-regional-fed-manufacturing-overview

 

                          The world’s most important oil price is about to change.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-30/the-world-s-most-important-oil-price-is-about-to-change-for-good?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ#xj4y7vzkg

 

                       

            The Fed

 

              What happens if (when) Japan reverses its QEInfinity policy?

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-30/boj-s-ueda-could-shake-global-financial-markets-by-changing-kuroda-policy?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ#xj4y7vzkg

 

 

            Inflation

 

              How inflation was created.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/03/how-bidenflation-was-made.html#.ZCWWv3bMKUk

 

 

            Recession

 

              Is the US facing a slow-moving recession?

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-us-facing-a-slower-moving-recession-threat/#more-19938

 

            The Banking System

 

              As big banks morph into public utilities.

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2023/03/30/as_banks_morph_into_utilities_too_big_to_fail_means_too_big_for_bias_890293.html

 

              Austerity for the plebes, rescue for the rich.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/03/austerity-for-the-plebes-bank-rescues-for-the-rich.html

 

     Bottom Line

 

            The case for gold is looking stronger.

            https://www.knowledgeleaderscapital.com/2023/03/27/the-case-for-gold-is-looking-stronger/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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The Morning Call--Junk bond spreads show economy is near recession

 

The Morning Call

 

3/30/23

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-quiet-too-quiet-again-bitcoin-big-tech-surge

 

            The impact of changes in the Fed’s balance sheet.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/biggest-delta-matters

 

            What the price of gold may be telling us.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/03/gold-prices-real-yields-and-paradigm.html#.ZCRzEXbMKUk

 

            Goldman sees a change in sentiment.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-trader-theres-been-interesting-shift-market-sentiment

 

            And this from Goldman’s head of derivative trading.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-zero-bulls-out-there

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 198,000 versus forecasts of 196,000.

 

                          February pending home sales rose 0.8% versus estimates of -2.3%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/03/29/pending-home-sales-grew-for-third-consecutive-month-up-0-8-in-february

 

Final Q4 GDP growth was +2.6% versus expectations of +2.7%; the Q4 PCE price index was 3.9%, in line; the core PCE price index was 4.4% versus 4.3%; Q4 real consumer spending was +1.0% versus +1.4%.

 

                        International

 

March EU economic sentiment  was 99.3 versus projections of 99.8; industrial sentiment was -0.2 versus +0.2; services sentiment was 9.4 versus 10.3; consumer confidence was 19.2, in line.

 

                          March German CPI was +0.8% versus consensus of +0.7%.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              And you think that you are confused.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3921016-shifting-monetary-policy-lags-confuse-markets-and-central-bankers/

 

              Quote of the day.

              https://cafehayek.com/2023/03/quotation-of-the-day-4222.html

 

            Inflation

 

              YoY rent growth continues to decelerate.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/03/year-over-year-rent-growth-continues-to_29.html

 

            Recession

 

              The latest nowcasts raise the estimate for Q1 GDP growth.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/softer-but-still-resilient-growth-expected-for-us-q1-gdp/

 

              Junk bond spreads show that economy is near recession.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/junk-spreads-show-us-economy-close-recession

 

            The Banking System

 

              Misdiagnosing Silicon Valley Bank.

              https://withoutwarning.substack.com/p/misdiagnosing-svb

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Paychex press release (NASDAQ:PAYX): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.29 beats by $0.05.

Revenue of $1.38B (+7.8% Y/Y) beats by $30M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            The implausibility of net zero carbon future.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/political/implausibility-net-zero-carbon-energy-future-now-obvious

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call--A Fed pivot is not bullish

 

The Morning Call

 

3/29/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

                

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/banks-big-tech-breakdown-credit-calm-bitcoin-bullion-bounce

 

            S&P trapped---which way will it break?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/spx-time-decide-0

                

            Short squeeze in oil.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/oil-chase

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 2.9% while purchase applications were up 2.0%.

 

                          March consumer confidence came in at 104.2 versus consensus of 101.0.

 

Note: the above notwithstanding, Goldman says consumer sentiment is   turning lower.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-sentiment-quickly-turning-negative-us-consumer

 

The March Richmond Fed manufacturing index was -17 versus forecasts of +3.

 

                        International

 

February UK consumer credit rose L1.4 billion versus predictions of +L1.3 billion.

 

The April German consumer confidence index was -29.5 versus expectations of -29.2.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              A Fed pivot is not bullish.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/federal-reserve-pivot-not-bullish

 

            Inflation

 

              Dust off the stagflation hedges.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/itprudent-dust-stagflation-hedges-again

 

            Recession

 

  Serious mortgage delinquency rate declined in February.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/03/freddie-mac-mortgage-serious.html

 

              Gundlach warns of imminent recession.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/economic-headwinds-are-building-jeff-gundlach-warns-imminent-recession

 

            The Banking System

 

              It was not a crisis of confidence, it was a profitability problem.

              https://www.ft.com/content/c34e195a-2877-4a4c-bf4e-71fbf7704ee4

 

              The Fed and bank failures.

              https://www.promarket.org/2023/03/27/the-fed-and-bank-failures/

 

            The coronavirus

 

              The economic damage of the Covid vaccine.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bombshell-vax-analysis-finds-147-billion-economic-damage-tens-millions-injured-or-disabled

 

     Bottom line

 

            A countertrend move?

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/03/26/weekly-market-pulse-perspective/

 

            Stability breeds instability.

            https://investoramnesia.com/2023/03/27/stability-breeds-instability/

 

            Blackrock thinks that markets are wrong on rate cuts.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-28/markets-are-wrong-on-us-rate-cut-bets-blackrock-says?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ#xj4y7vzkg

 

            Three warning signs from the bond market.

            https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1147114/3-warning-signs-from-the-bond-market

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The age of average.

            https://www.alexmurrell.co.uk/articles/the-age-of-average

 

 

                        Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/03/quotation-of-the-day-4221.html

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call--Where the financial risks lie

 

The Morning Call

 

3/28/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-bonds-big-tech-bullion-breakdown-banks-black-gold-bounce

 

            The Fed’s balance sheet and the dollar.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-crisis-remedy-threatens-put-more-pressure-dollar

 

            Credit stress remains elevated.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/stubborn-credit-stress

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

What the recent relative strength of various stock market sectors tells us about sentiment.  (must read).

https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2023/03/understanding-market-themes-from-sector.html

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

                          The January Case Shiller home price index rose 2.5%, in line.

 

February retail inventories, ex autos, were up 0.4% versus estimates of -0.2%; February wholesale inventories were up 0.2% versus -0.2%.

 

The March Dallas Fed manufacturing index was reported at -15.7 versus expectations of -10.0.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/03/27/dallas-fed-manufacturing-business-conditions-continued-to-worsen-in-march

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              ‘Not QE’ puts the Fed between a rock and a hard place.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/03/27/not-qe-puts-fed-between-a-rock-and-a-hard-place

 

            The Banking System

 

              Loan growth (or lack thereof) suggests that a hard landing is on the way.

              https://thereformedbroker.com/2023/03/27/a-shock-to-lending-standards/

 

              Policy makers dual nightmare.

              https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/03/23/policymakers-face-two-nightmares-stubborn-inflation-and-market-chaos

 

              Where the financial risk lies.

  https://www.wsj.com/articles/where-financial-risk-lies-in-12-charts-792bca35?mod=markets_lead_pos5&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=251781487&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_-yHa6j-V4z2aFGMfPivDtJd4Gg0Asnrmwctn_ypJPkJejNJqmGZ5oGk_nw6l2TWy3REVUnEZzEKQ4JVKaSxDGv5XSww&utm_content=251781487&utm_source=hs_email

 

           

              The risks posed by private equity firms.

                          https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-27/banking-crisis-raises-concerns-about-hidden-leverage-in-the-system?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

           

     Bottom line

 

            Six nuggets of investment wisdom from Charles Ellis.

            https://www.evidenceinvestor.com/charley-ellis-six-nuggets-of-investment-wisdom/

 

            Estimating future stock returns.

            https://alephblog.com/2023/03/25/estimating-future-stock-returns-december-2022-update/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/03/quotation-of-the-day-4220.html

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.