The Morning Call--A bear market can be a good thing

 

The Morning Call

Including two must read articles.

 

12/2/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/silver-surged-crypto-purged-boj-hawks-battle-fed-doves

 

                Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-flows-gurus-see-choppy-stretch-start-december-despite-plunge-panic-gamma-cushion

 

            Silver’s squeeze.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/sexy-silvers-squeeze-20

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          The November manufacturing PMI was 52.2 versus forecasts of 51.9.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/12/01/sp-global-manufacturing-pmi-november-2025

 

The November ISM manufacturing index was 48.2 versus projections of 48.8.

https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/12/november-ism-manufacturing-report.html

 

                        International

 

The October EU unemployment rate was 6.4% versus estimates of 6.3%; the November inflation rate was -0.3%, in line.

 

The November Japanese consumer confidence index came in at 37.5 versus expectations of 36.1.

 

November UK housing prices rose 0.3% versus consensus of +0.2%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Dollar depreciation could deepen before a rebound.

                          https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-dollar-decline-continues-through-2026

 

                          It is home prices, not mortgage rates, which are too high.

  https://wolfstreet.com/2025/11/29/mortgage-rates-are-not-too-high-whats-too-high-are-home-prices-that-exploded-by-40-70-in-2-years-creating-the-affordability-crisis/

 

                                                  Chinese property market on the verge of collapse.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/evergrand-er-chinese-property-market-verge-fresh-collapse-vanke-bonds-implode

 

                        Overnight News

 

The Fed ended Balance Sheet Runoff yesterday, which will decrease the liquidity drain, although the impact on overall funding conditions remains nebulous. The Fed will absorb $2 trillion in bill issuance, which further decreases the liquidity drain. However, this is done at the expense of the agency/agency MBS market, which will experience a major increase in supply which needs financing and which will put further pressure on the housing market. Meanwhile, the stress in the funding market - exhibited via TGCR rates and SRF usage - will be closely watched by the Fed to determine the pace with which the balance sheet will ultimately resume growth in 2026.

                                               

 

            Monetary Policy

 

                More on a potential BOJ rate hike.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/will-boj-unleash-another-christmas-carry-trade-massacre

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Another social security deadline reminder.

              https://www.axios.com/2025/11/29/social-security-trust-fund-2033

           

            Geopolitics

 

              The latest on the US/Ukrainian/Russian peace talks.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/witkoff-heads-moscow-revised-ukraine-peace-plan-after-tense-miami-meeting-focused

 

     Investing

 

            A bear market is a good thing.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/12/01/bear-market-good-thing

 

            Private credit default lines.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/12/01/private-fault-lines

 

            Private credit hysteria will get very real in 2026.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-12-01/private-credit-risk-apollo-ceo-hysteria-claim-is-not-totally-right?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            How to take advantage of the new tax code.

            https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-tax-code-is-more-complicated-and-more-unfair-how-to-take-advantage/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Bank of Nova Scotia press release (BNS): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of C$1.93 beats by C$0.09.

Revenue of C$9.81B (+15.0% Y/Y) beats by C$380M.

 

Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) declares CAD 1.10/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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