Wednesday, December 17, 2025

The Morning Call---Japan's 10 year is running the show

 

The Morning Call

 

12/17/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-bonds-bid-oil-stocks-skid-amid-payrolls-peace-talks-pummeling-brussels

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats (lousy breadth).

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            Japan’s 10 year is running the show.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/japans-10y-running-show-and-markets-should-be-nervous

 

            Commodities back a support levels.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/commodities-back-support-second-chance

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 3.8% while purchase applications were down 2.8%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were up 6.2% versus +5.7% in the prior week.

 

The December flash manufacturing PMI came in at 51.8 versus forecasts of 52.0; the flash services PMI was 52.9 versus 53.0; the flash composite PMI was 53.0 versus 53.2.

 

                        International

 

October Japanese machine tool orders were up 7.0% versus projections of down 2.6%; The November trade balance was Y322.2 billion versus Y65.0 billion.

 

The November UK CPI came in down 0.2% versus estimates of down 0.1%; the December industrial trends orders index was -32 versus -34.

 

The December German business climate index was reported at 87.6 versus expectations of 88.5; the December current conditions index was 85.6 versus 85.7.

 

                        Other

                       

                          What is poor and who is struggling?

                          https://allisonschrager.substack.com/p/the-end-of-free-money

           

              US/China trade falls as Chinese global exports surge.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/12/us-china-trade-falls-as-chinas-global.html

 

              A detailed look at yesterday’s employment report (s).

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/12/combined-october-and-november-jobs.html

 

Overnight News

 

Trump on Tuesday ordered a “complete blockage” of sanctioned oil tankers from accessing Venezuela and labeled the Maduro government a “terrorist regime.” Brent jumped and rose further on the news of potentially more Russia sanctions.

           

Monetary Policy

 

Poo pooing the debt alarmism. (The author may be correct that the markets are not anticipating economic collapse; but they are starting to discount higher inflation.)

  https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/12/16/ray_dalios_debt_alarmism_is_belied_by_his_genius_as_an_investor_1153146.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The federal deficit is shrinking---can it last?

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-12-16/the-federal-deficit-is-shrinking-can-that-last?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            AI

 

              The concentration bears have steered you wrong.

              https://www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/the-concentration-bears-have-steered-you-wrong

 

              Investors seeking protection from potential AI debt bust.

              https://www.ft.com/content/c5f9380e-df86-42a9-a387-a0d5e04ad45f

 

              Tech rotation---winners and losers.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tech-rotation-winners-and-losers

 

              Blue Owl pulls out of funding for latest Oracle data center.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tech-stocks-tumble-blue-owl-pulls-out-funding-oracle-data-center

 

            Tariffs

 

              Why everyone got Trump’s tariffs wrong.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/why-everyone-got-trumps-tariffs-wrong-d16a4598?mod=economy_lead_pos4

 

              US threatens retaliation against EU ‘digital tax’.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stockx-extend-losses-white-house-threatens-retaliation-against-eu-digital-tax

 

            2026

 

              Wall Street sees earnings growth in 2026.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-16/wall-street-sees-rare-earnings-growth-supporting-s-p-s-bull-case?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              The Citadel outlook.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tails-are-getting-fatter-citadels-macro-guru-sees-risks-shift-narrative

 

     Investing

 

            Know the horsepower of your investments.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/12/16/know-horsepower-your-money

 

            How viable is the ‘buy the dip’ strategy?

            https://alphaarchitect.com/is-trend-following-better-than-buy-the-dip/

 

            Goldman: buy nicotine, energy drink, beauty and candy stocks.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buy-nicotine-energy-drink-candy-stocks-goldman-gets-bullish-american-consumer

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            The tax on social security benefits.

            https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/12/12/dont-forget-this-social-security-rule/87657648007/

 

                        Trump’s new national security strategy.

            https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/12/trumps-new-national-security-strategy.php

 

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