The Morning Call
12/17/25
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
Tuesday in the technical stats (lousy breadth).
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Japan’s 10 year is running the show.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/japans-10y-running-show-and-markets-should-be-nervous
Commodities back a
support levels.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/commodities-back-support-second-chance
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage
applications fell 3.8% while purchase applications were down 2.8%.
Month to date
retail chain store sales were up 6.2% versus +5.7% in the prior week.
The December flash
manufacturing PMI came in at 51.8 versus forecasts of 52.0; the flash services PMI
was 52.9 versus 53.0; the flash composite PMI was 53.0 versus 53.2.
International
October Japanese
machine tool orders were up 7.0% versus projections of down 2.6%; The November trade
balance was Y322.2 billion versus Y65.0 billion.
The November UK
CPI came in down 0.2% versus estimates of down 0.1%; the December industrial trends
orders index was -32 versus -34.
The December
German business climate index was reported at 87.6 versus expectations of 88.5;
the December current conditions index was 85.6 versus 85.7.
Other
What is poor and who is struggling?
https://allisonschrager.substack.com/p/the-end-of-free-money
US/China
trade falls as Chinese global exports surge.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/12/us-china-trade-falls-as-chinas-global.html
A
detailed look at yesterday’s employment report (s).
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/12/combined-october-and-november-jobs.html
Overnight
News
Trump on Tuesday
ordered a “complete blockage” of sanctioned oil tankers from accessing
Venezuela and labeled the Maduro government a “terrorist regime.” Brent jumped
and rose further on the news of potentially more Russia sanctions.
Monetary
Policy
Poo pooing the
debt alarmism. (The author may be correct that the markets are not anticipating
economic collapse; but they are starting to discount higher inflation.)
Fiscal
Policy
The federal deficit is shrinking---can it
last?
AI
The concentration bears have steered you
wrong.
https://www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/the-concentration-bears-have-steered-you-wrong
Investors seeking protection from potential AI
debt bust.
https://www.ft.com/content/c5f9380e-df86-42a9-a387-a0d5e04ad45f
Tech rotation---winners and losers.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tech-rotation-winners-and-losers
Blue Owl pulls out of funding for latest
Oracle data center.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tech-stocks-tumble-blue-owl-pulls-out-funding-oracle-data-center
Tariffs
Why everyone got Trump’s tariffs wrong.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/why-everyone-got-trumps-tariffs-wrong-d16a4598?mod=economy_lead_pos4
US threatens retaliation against EU ‘digital
tax’.
2026
Wall Street sees earnings growth in 2026.
The Citadel outlook.
Investing
Know the
horsepower of your investments.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/12/16/know-horsepower-your-money
How viable is the ‘buy the dip’ strategy?
https://alphaarchitect.com/is-trend-following-better-than-buy-the-dip/
Goldman: buy nicotine,
energy drink, beauty and candy stocks.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
The
tax on social security benefits.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/12/12/dont-forget-this-social-security-rule/87657648007/
Trump’s new national
security strategy.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/12/trumps-new-national-security-strategy.php
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment