The Morning Call
12/5/25
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/super-squeeze-sends-small-caps-soaring-bonds-bitcoin-dip-good-data
Thursday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
The setup for all-time
highs in gold.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
September factory
orders rose 0.2% versus forecasts of -0.7%; ex transportation, they were up 0.2%
versus +0.1%.
International
Q3 EU GDP grew
0.3% versus predictions of +0.2%; Q3 employment increased 0.2% versus +0.1%.
October Japanese
household spending fell 3.5% versus estimates of +0.5%; the October leading
economic indicators came in at 110.0 versus 108.8.
October German
factory orders were up 1.5% versus expectations of +0.4%.
Other
Update on business cycle indicators.
Update on mortgage delinquencies and
foreclosures.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/q3-update-delinquencies-foreclosures.html
Update on consumer
sentiment.
Home price growth slowed in October.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/12/cotality-house-price-growth-slowed-to.html
The role seasonal
factors played in yesterday's weekly jobless claims number.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/12/jobless-claims-holiday-seasonality.html
Overnight
News
BOJ officials are
ready to raise the policy rate at this month’s meeting — taking it to its
highest level since 1995 — provided there’s no major shocks in the meantime,
people familiar said. The yen strengthened.
US Trade
Representative Greer said trade with China needs to be balanced and probably
needs to be smaller, while he added they want to have stability in the
relationship with China, and that the US trade deficit in goods with China is
down about 25%, which is the right direction.
Greer also noted
there are problems with the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement and that they
already have adjustments to some of these challenges, as well as stated that
the US wants to make sure that Canada and Mexico aren't used as an export hub
for China, Vietnam or Indonesia, among others.
Monetary
Policy
Labor market data supports likelihood of a
December rate cut.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/weak-labor-market-supports-outlook-for-another-rate-cut/
Bond
investors warn Trump about appointing Hassett. (I include this article because it had
investors all in a tizzy yesterday. Personally, I think it much ado about nothing:
(1) there is always disagreement about Fed policy---just look at the dialogue
right now about whether or not it is wise to lower rates, (2) the Fed chair has
always been a political appointee that it is assumed will follow the party in
power’s agenda, and (3) he is one vote.
https://www.ft.com/content/ad4bfd8b-a0f8-4f9e-a234-eed589e3d0ab
Fiscal
Policy
Why income inequality is not as big a problem
as some make it out to be.
https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/economics-of-envy-cant-answer/
Washington’s
unstoppable spending train. (the only problem with this article is that republicans
are just as guilty as democrats)
https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2025/12/03/the-congressional-spending-train-is-unstoppable-n4946665
Inflation
Why
Americans are so unhappy with the economy. (And Trump wants lower interest rates.)
Outlook
for 2026
Some unhealthy precedents.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/looking-ahead-to-december-and-beyond?post=542639
Volatility likely to increase in 2026.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rate-vol-too-sleepy-given-macro-catalysts-ahead
Investing
The bitcoin canary in the coal mine.
https://www.aei.org/economics/the-bitcoin-canary-in-the-coalmine/
The investment case
for gold.
https://www.man.com/insights/gold-bugs-bears-myths
More on the run up
in silver.
Policy news and
stock market volatility.
https://alphaarchitect.com/policy-news/
More on valuation.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/12/the-mystery-of-m.html
Secular
bull and bear market trends.
Hedge
funds double down using near record level of leverage. (The complacency expressed in the article
aside, leverage has always worked against investors when the Market rolls over.
I am not saying that will happen tomorrow; but record high valuations [see
above article] coupled with lots of leverage suggests caution.)
The risks in private equity investing.
https://ritholtz.com/2025/12/sturgeons-corollary/
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Kroger press
release (KR): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.05 beats by $0.02.
Revenue of
$33.86B (+0.7% Y/Y) misses by $320M.
What
I am reading today
How
ignorance has become a survival strategy.
A
threat that could turn everything off.
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/ai-booms-us-ignores-one-threat-could-turn-everything
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
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