The Morning Call---Cash levels are low.

 

The Morning Call

 

12/18/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/data-center-drama-wrecks-tech-silver-soars-amid-crypto-chaos

 

                Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 224,000 versus forecasts of 229,000.

 

The November YoY CPI came in up 2.7% versus expectations of +3.0%; YoY core CPI was up 2.6% versus +3.0% (MoM was not reported).

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-consumer-price-inflation-tumbles-november

 

The December Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was -10.2 versus estimates of +6.0.

 

                        International

 

                          The October EU YoY construction output rose 0.5%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on big four recession indicators.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/12/16/the-big-four-recession-indicators-november-2025-employment

 

            Monetary {policy

 

              Both the Bank of England and the ECB left rates unchanged.

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Bad ideas are still bad.

              https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/im-not-budging

 

            Recession

 

              Recession alert.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/weak-payrolls-trend-highlights-emerging-risk-for-the-economy/

 

              And another.

              https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/12/real-retail-sales-contract-depending-on.html

 

            2026

 

              A difficult year ahead.

              https://www.aei.org/economics/a-difficult-year-ahead-for-the-economy/

 

             Tariffs

 

              Goldman’s case for falling tariffs.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/goldmans-case-falling-tariffs-midterms-loom

 

            Geopolitics

 

              US readies new sanctions if Russia rejects peace deal.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-17/us-readies-new-russia-sanctions-if-putin-rejects-peace-deal?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Trump orders blockade of oil sanctioned oil tankers in and out of Venezuela.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-16/trump-says-he-s-ordering-a-blockade-of-oil-tankers-in-venezuela?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

     Investing

 

            Cash levels are record low.

            https://www.ft.com/content/35023562-9273-46b1-b63e-39e7426c10ed

 

            Update on the outlook for S&P 500 dividends.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/12/the-outlook-for-s-500-dividends-in.html

 

            Trump targets defense giants shareholder payouts.

            https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/trump-plans-financial-restrictions-late-overbudget-defense-contractors-sources-2025-12-17/

 

            Why investors are worried about the Japanese bond market.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-17/why-investors-are-worried-about-japan-s-bond-market?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

           

            Bitcoin is behaving like a no fundamentals tech stock.

            https://sherwood.news/markets/bitcoin-is-behaving-like-a-no-fundamentals-tech-stock/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Williams-Sonoma (WSM) declares $0.66/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

FactSet Research Systems press release (FDS): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $4.51 beats by $0.15.

Revenue of $607.6M (+6.8% Y/Y) beats by $6.97M.

 

Accenture press release (ACN): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.94 beats by $0.22.

Revenue of $18.74B (+5.9% Y/Y) beats by $210M.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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