The Morning Call---The Market isn't buying the Fed

 

The Morning Call

 

12/9/25

 

I am having a medical procedure that will keep me out of action today and tomorrow. Back on Friday.

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hawkish-lean-sparks-cross-market-pain-dollar-gain

 

            Monday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            New highs up next.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/new-highs-up-next-with-higher-risk-leading-into-fed-meeting?post=543254

 

            The disposable income link to margin debt.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dpi-link-margin-debt

 

            The latest from Goldman’s flows desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/complete-flows-technicals-positioning-market-summary-we-reach-end-2025

 

            The Market isn’t buying the Fed.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/rates-move-and-market-isnt-buying-fed

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

The ADP weekly employment report showed job increases of 4,750 versus -13,500 in the prior week.

 

The November small business optimism index came in at 99.0 versus forecasts of 98.0.

           

                        International

 

The October German trade balance was E16.9 billion versus projections of E15.9 billion.

 

November Japanese YoY machine tool orders rose 14.2% versus estimates of +9.4%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Home prices ‘firmed’ in November.

                          https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/new-highs-up-next-with-higher-risk-leading-into-fed-meeting?post=543254

 

                          More evidence of consumer weakness.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/12/while-capital-spending-increased.html

 

                          Results of NY Fed consumer survey.

                                      https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ny-fed-consumer-survey-shows-steady-inflation-despite-soaring-expectations-medical-care

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Fed policy about to be tested.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/5633688-federal-reserve-policy-shift/

 

              Lack of official data leaves Fed uncertain.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/12/08/jobs-data-alternative-sources-drive-feds-next-move

 

A hawkish tilt in global monetary policy has yet to become dramatic. (‘yet’ being the operative word. In my opinion, this is an early warning signal.)

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-hawkish-turn-has-yet-become-dramatic-one

 

            Inflation

 

              On housing affordability

              https://scottsumner.substack.com/p/imagine-a-bigger-seattle

 

              Consumer income versus consumer sentiment.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/12/sectrsy-bessent-the-american-people-dont-know-how-good-they-have-it

 

              Comparing the CPI and PCE price indices.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/12/08/two-measures-of-inflation-september-2025

 

              The healthcare inflation bomb.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/health-care-inflation-bomb-makes-the-feds-2-percent-target-almost-impossible/

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Zelensky rejects Trump peace plan.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/zelensky-definitively-shuts-door-trump-peace-plan-wont-cede-territory

 

     Investing

 

            The depreciation schedule for AI chips may not be as big a deal as some think.

            https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-accounting-uproar-over-how-fast-an-ai-chip-depreciates-6f59785b?mod=business_lead_pos4

 

            Lower rates continue to favor foreign stocks.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/the-everything-rally-endures-as-the-years-end-game-unfolds/

 

                The most important market in the world is breaking down.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/the-most-important-market-in-the-world-is-breaking-down-again?post=543234

 

            Inflation is the main risk for investors in 2026.

            https://www.ft.com/content/a62efa48-9265-40bb-b89d-d552cd549eba

 

            How will the rise in Japanese rates impact global markets?

            https://www.ft.com/content/12c35477-5843-4d15-9808-e9563a497648

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.