The Morning Call---DJIA at premium to its dividend discounted value

 

The Morning Call

 

12/3/25

 

The Market

 

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crypto-crashes-stocks-bonds-dollar-chop

 

            Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-traders-see-less-panic-retail-buyers-return-market

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications declined 1.4% while purchase applications were up 2.5%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales were up 7.6% versus +5.9% in the prior week.

 

The November ADP private payrolls report showed job losses of 32,000 versus expectations of a 15,000 increase,

 

The December economic optimism index came in at 47.4 versus consensus of 48.5.

 

                        International

 

                          The October EU PPI was up 0.1% versus predictions of +0.2%.

 

The November Japanese services PMI was 53.2 versus forecasts of 53.1; the composite PMI was 52.0, in line; the November German services PMI was 53.1 versus 52.7; the composite PMI was 52.1, in line; the November EU services PMI was 53.6 versus 53.1; the composite PMI was 52.8 versus 52.4; the November UK services PMI was 51.3 versus 50.5; the composite PMI was 51.2 versus 50.5.

 

                        Other

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Inflation won’t fix the debt problem.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/12/02/inflation-does-not-fix-especially-debt

 

            Inflation

 

              The price tag of America’s great build-a-thon.

              https://bondvigilantes.com/blog/2025/12/americas-great-build-a-thon-comes-with-a-price-tag/

 

            Recession

 

              Are we already in a recession?

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/12/recession-with-decreasing-employment-and-increasing-gdp

 

              AI driven workforce disruptions are increasing.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/earnings-season-chatter-ais-workforce-disruptions-keep-soaring

 

              The K shaped consumer spending breakdown widens.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-spots-intensifying-k-shaped-consumer-bessent-signals-brighter-2026

 

            Outlook for 2026

 

              From Morgan Stanley.

              https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/stock-market-investment-outlook-2026

 

     Investing

 

            A lesson from Charlie Munger.

https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/the-greatest-investing-lesson-i-learned-from-charlie-munger/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP839&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            Energy affordability has become a kitchen table issue.

            https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/12/01/energy_affordability_has_become_the_kitchen-table_issue_of_the_2020s_1150526.html

 

            The great equity reset.

            https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2025/12/the-great-equity-reset-global-dispersion.html

           

            AI adoption rate starting to flatten out.

            https://www.apolloacademy.com/ai-adoption-rates-starting-to-flatten-out/

 

            November dividends by the numbers.

                https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/12/dividends-by-numbers-in-november-2025.html

 

            Update on valuation.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/12/02/market-valuation-is-the-market-still-overvalued

 

            DJIA at a premium to its dividend discount value.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/stocks--equities/djia-at-29-premium-to-its-ddv-caveat-emptor?post=541828

 

            Turmoil in the bond markets.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2025-12-02/the-hard-nosed-sympathy-beating-up-bond-markets?srnd=homepage-americas

 

            The surge in Japanese yields continues to raise concerns.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/japans-yield-surge-no-local-story-remember-what-happened-ndx-last-time

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Being outstanding by standing out.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2025/12/being-outstanding-by-standing-out.html

 

 

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