The Morning Call
12/12/25
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
Thursday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Goldman sees significant
upside to gold.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 236,000
versus consensus of 205,000.
The September
trade balance was -$52.8 billion versus expectations of -$57.0 billion.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/12/11/trade-deficit-shrinks-september-2025
International
October Japanese
industrial production was up 1.5% versus forecasts of +1.4%.
October UK GDP was
down 0.1% versus predictions of no growth; October industrial production was up
1.1% versus +0.8%; the October trade balance was -L2.8 billion versus -L1.9
billion; October YoY construction output was up 0.9% versus +1.5%.
November German
CPI was down 0.2%, in line.
Other
Strong
Black Friday sales and the Debt Black Hole.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/12/11/strong-black-friday-sale-debt-black-hole
Affordability is neither a crisis nor a hoax.
Is
there a possible long term regime change in jobless claims?
Monetary
Policy
Why the Fed’s new ‘reserve management
purchases’ are not QE.
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/12/11/why-the-feds-reserve-management-purchases-are-not-qe/
AI
As AI grows, so does affordability.
Howard Marks on AI.
This is a long article, but a must read. He covers quite thoroughly the pros and cons of investing in AI
today.
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/is-it-a-bubble
This piece presents
a well-researched bear case on AI. Like the above article, it is a bit long. I
am not smart enough to comment on many of the points the author makes. So I am
not suggesting that the results envisioned will occur. Still, anyone investing or
considering investing in the AI stocks needs to read this.
Everyone seems to be
ganging up on AI. Here is a shorter mathematic look at AI valuation.
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/12/q-theory-in-a-time-of-ai
Ed Yardini lowers portfolio
weighting of AI.
AI
CALL: The TIME Curse & The Game of Thrones
Tariffs
Trump’s ‘Swiss cheese’ tariffs.
Outlook
for 2026
Why the Market will likely rise in 2026.
Every asset managers’ 2026 (useless) forecast.
https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2025/12/09/every-asset-managers-2026-forecasts/
What could go wrong?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/prepare-unexpected-these-are-deutsche-banks-2026-curveballs
Investing
The
impact of fiscal deficits on corporate profits and valuations. This is an absolute
must read article. It hypothesizes that deficits serve to increase profit margins
as well as multiples. To be sure ‘hypothesizes’ is the operative. However, if
even close to being correct, it suggests that when our ruling class gets their
fiscal s**t together that will not be a plus for stocks.
Despite the rate
cut regime, long rates continue to rise. (did someone say inflation?)
https://www.apolloacademy.com/a-mystery-in-fixed-income/
Q3 Russell 2000
earnings dashboard.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Mastercard (MA) declared $0.87/share quarterly dividend, 14.5% increase from
prior dividend of $0.76.
Altria (MO) declared $1.06/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
Oracle press
release (ORCL): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.26 beats by
$0.62.
Revenue of
$16.06B (+13.9% Y/Y) misses by $130M.
Oracle (ORCL) declares $0.50/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous
What
I am reading today
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
No comments:
Post a Comment