The Morning Call
12/16/25
The
Market
Technical
Friday in the
charts.
Friday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/signals/new-recommendations
Margin debt tops
$1.2 trillion.
Bitcoin is at the
edge.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/bitcoins-edge-whos-gonna-buy
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Today we got the data from the shutdown:
October nonfarm payrolls
down 105,000 versus estimates of up 55,000;
October retail sales flat versus +0.2%, ex autos, up 0.5% versus +0.2%;
November nonfarm payrolls up 64,000 versus up 25,000; the November unemployment
rate was 4.6%, in line.
The December NAHB housing index was 39 versus
predictions of 37.
International
The October UK unemployment
rate was 5.1%, in line; the October (3 mo./YoY) average earnings were up 4.7%
versus 4.5%.
The October EU
trade balance was +E18.4 billion versus consensus of +E14.1 billion; the
December economic sentiment index was 33.7 versus 25.5; the December German
economic sentiment index was 45.8 versus 39.0; the December German current
conditions index was -81.0 versus -76.8.
The December
Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 49.7 versus expectations of 49.5; the flash
services PMI was 52.5 versus 51.2; the flash composite PMI was 51.5 versus 51.9;
the December German flash manufacturing PMI as 47.1 versus 48.9; the flash
services PMI was 52.6 versus 52.5; the flash composite PMI was 51.9 versus
53.6; the December EU flash manufacturing PMI as 49.2 versus 50.1; the flash
services PMI was 52.6 versus 53.8; the flash composite PMI was 51.9 versus
53.6; the December UK flash manufacturing PMI as 51.2, in line; the flash
services PMI was 52.1 versus 52.0; the flash composite PMI was 52.1 versus 51.9.
Other
What do vehicle miles traveled and gas usage
tell us about the economy?
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/12/what-do-vehicle-miles-traveled-and-gas.html
Yields
are rising.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/interest-costs-are-exploding-and-yields-are-still-rising
Overnight
News
Two days of
intense negotiations between Ukraine, the U.S. and European officials resulted
in clear progress on security guarantees for Ukraine but left significant gaps
on the issue of territory.
The U.S. is
offering Ukraine security guarantees similar to those it would receive as part
of NATO, American officials said Monday. The offer is the strongest and most
explicit security pledge the Trump administration has put forward for Ukraine,
but it comes with an implicit ultimatum: Take it now or the next iteration
won’t be as generous.
Monetary
Policy
Can the Fed really do what economists think it
can?
Yield
curve steepens sharply as Fed continues to cut rates (inflation anyone?)
The bond market won’t be fooled.
Fiscal
Policy
Global debt addiction.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/12/15/debt-addiction-global
AI
Will AI capex spending lead to positive
returns?
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/12/15/ai-capex-spending-lead-positive-outcomes
Tariffs
The Supreme Court’s
dilemma.
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2025/12/the_rings_of_power_and_the_trump_tariffs.html
Investing
Valuations say
nothing about stocks one year forward return (although they are predictive
about the ten year forward return).
https://www.tker.co/p/schwab-forward-pe-valuation-says-nothing
The parallels between the dot com bubble and
AI mania.
The coming rotation from AI to the physical assets.
https://www.latticework.com/p/the-great-rotation-the-case-for-intelligent
A bull market
genius is a dangerous thing.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bull-market-genius-dangerous-thing
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
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