The Morning Call---The pain trade is higher

 

The Morning Call

 

7/25/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            Hulking Gains Continue For Meme Stocks & Mega-Caps; Gold Lags | ZeroHedge

 

            Thursday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Stocks are bubbling.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/stocks-are-bubbling-and-we-all-know-how-it-will-end?post=511271

 

            Speculation back in full force.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/miss-market-wants-squeeze-you

 

            Pain trade is still higher.

                https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pain-trade-remains-higher-citadels-rubner-warns-blow-top-led-laggards

 

            The latest from Goldman’s desk.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/earnings-complacency-nvda-straddles-biggest-non-consensus-trade

 

            This analyst says sentiment is still contained.

            https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/the-crazy-train-market/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

June durable goods orders fell 9.3% versus expectations of down 10.8%; ex transportation, they were up 0.2% versus up 0.1%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/durable-goods-orders-ex-transports-beat-expectations-june

 

                          June new home sales were up 0.6% versus consensus of +1.0%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/24/new-home-sales-inch-up-0-6-in-june

 

The July flash manufacturing PMI was 54.6 versus predictions o 52.9; the flash services PMI was 55.2 versus 53.0; the flash composite PMI was 54.6 versus 52.9.

 

                        International

 

June UK retail sales grew 0.9% versus forecasts of +1.2%; ex fuel, they were up 0.6% versus +1.2%; the July consumer confidence index was -19 versus -20.

 

July Japanese YoY CPI was up 2.9% versus projections of +3.1%; YoY core CPI was +2.9% versus +3.0%.

 

The July German business climate index was 88.6 versus estimates of 89.0; the July current conditions index was 86.5 versus 86.7.

 

                        Other

 

                          Mortgage delinquencies slightly higher in June.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2025/07/ice-first-look-at-june-mortgage.html

 

            Overnight News

 

The dollar gained after Donald Trump downplayed his clash with Jerome Powell over the Fed’s renovation costs, saying it wasn’t reason enough to fire him. Trump said during his visit to the Federal Reserve that it is a tough construction job, while Trump and Powell briefly voiced disagreement over renovation figures and he reiterated that he wants Powell to lower interest rates. Trump later commented that he talked with Fed Chair Powell on rates and the meeting was productive, and noted that there was no tension, while he repeated several times that he believes Powell will do the right thing. Trump also said he has maybe three names in mind for Powell's replacement but stated it is not necessary to fire Powell which would be a big move. 

 

The U.S. has collected an additional $55 billion in tariffs this year. Corporate America has largely shouldered the bill for now, but that could change as firms gradually adjust prices to account for the new tariffs that are the highest level we have seen in decades.

 

India’s Commerce Minister said he was optimistic that India could reach an agreement with the US ahead of the August 1st deadline and he had some wonderful engagement with his “friend and colleague from the US”. Furthermore, he said they are making fantastic progress with the US on a trade deal and hopes they'll be able to conclude a "very consequential partnership".

 

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Why Trump is wrong about monetary policy.

                https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-24/the-fed-needs-to-tread-carefully-with-this-strange-dollar?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

              The Fed’s dilemma over tariff tradeoffs.

              https://www.ft.com/content/90652405-89af-44e4-9ff4-314dbe1125ef

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              What if the only tax was a national sales tax?

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2025/07/24/a_case_for_the_sales_tax_as_the_most_honest_form_of_taxation_1124549.html

 

            Tariffs

 

              Trump’s tariff deal with Japan is a loser for Americans.

              https://reason.com/2025/07/23/trumps-deal-with-japan-is-another-loser-for-americans/

 

              Tariffs don’t make American cars great again.

              https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/tariffs-dont-make-american-cars-great-again/

 

     Investing

 

            Beware meme stocks.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/24/business/opendoor-krispy-kreme-meme-stocks.html

 

            The best time to invest.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2025/07/the-best-time-to-invest/

 

            Crashing in the absence of an actual market.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crashing-absence-actual-market

 

            Investors regaining confidence in the economy.

            Investors May Be Gaining Confidence In the Resilience of the US Economy

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

            Friday morning humor.

            10 Ways An AI Wife Is Better Than A Real One | Babylon Bee

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

 

 

 

The Morning Call---Trump tariffs go to court

 

The Morning Call

 

7/24/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/deals-dismal-data-send-bonds-bullion-bitcoin-lower-quant-chaos-continues

 

                Wednesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            Ten charts that Goldman traders are watching.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldilocks-3-bears-these-are-10-charts-goldman-traders-are-discussing-most

 

            Margin debt surges in June.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/23/margin-debt-surges-record-high-june-2025

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly jobless claims totaled 217,000 versus estimates of 227,000.

 

                          June building permits were down 0.1% versus projections of +0.2%.

 

                          June existing home sales fell 2.7% versus forecasts of -0.7%.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/07/june-existing-home-sales-pause-in.html

 

                                                  The June Chicago Fed national activity index was -0.1, in line.

 

                        International

 

The July Japanese flash manufacturing PMI was 48.8 versus consensus of 50.2; the flash services PMI was 53.5 versus 51.3; the flash composite PMI was 51.5 versus 50.0; the July German flash manufacturing PMI was 49.2 versus 49.5; the flash services PMI was 50.1 versus 50.0; the flash composite PMI was 50.3 versus 50.7; the July EU flash manufacturing PMI was 49.8 versus 49.7; the flash services PMI was 51.2 versus 50.7; the flash composite PMI was 51.0 versus 50.8; the July UK flash manufacturing PMI was 48.2 versus 48.0; the flash services PMI was 51.2 versus 53.0; the flash composite PMI was 51.0 versus 51.8.

 

The July EU flash consumer confidence index came in at -14.7 versus expectations of -15; the August German consumer confidence index was -21.5 versus -19.2.

 

The July UK industrial trends orders index was -30 versus estimates of -28; the Q3 business optimism index was -27 versus -31.

 

                        Other

 

                          The case for a stronger dollar.

                          https://www.apolloacademy.com/outlook-for-the-us-dollar/

 

            Monetary Policy

           

 Here is the argument for lowering rates. I would counter that the bond market is smarter and more accurate than all the economists in the world. The author isn’t even an economist. He is a political analyst and the bond market is saying leave rates where they are.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/faith-freedom-self-reliance/3475951/trump-is-right-time-to-cut-interest-rates/

 

Unfortunately, the White House is as confused as the economists. Here is one of Trump’s own applauding a capital spending boom which is hardly an argument for lowering rates.

https://www.axios.com/2025/07/22/trump-economy-treasury-data

 

              ECB keeps rates unchanged.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/ecb-keeps-rates-unchanged-expected

 

            Tariffs

 

              Another argument against tariffs.

              https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/07/21/trump-tariffs-trade-war-costs/

 

              EU readies E100 billion tariff plan if no deal.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-23/eu-readies-100-billion-no-deal-plan-to-match-us-30-tariff?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ     

 

             We apparently have a deal with Indonesia, but details are sketchy.

             https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/indonesia-to-remove-numerous-trade-barriers-white-house-says-f19832d5?mod=economy_lead_pos3

 

              On the other hand, it may not matter if the courts rule against Trump.

              Trump's Tariffs Go To Court

 

     Investing

 

            The latest from AllianceBernstein.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/07/23/capital-markets-3q-2025-red-green-yellow-light

 

                Crypto enters new policy era.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/market-commentary/ethereum-stands-to-gain-as-us-crypto-policy-enters-new-era?post=510980

 

                The rise and risk of stablecoins.

            https://www.ft.com/content/b3063d9a-d161-4dda-96bb-ea0dfaa2488d

 

                Ethereum continues to attract investors.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/spot-ether-etfs-attract-533m-extend-13-day-inflow-streak-over-4b

 

                Three things driving an uncertain dollar.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/3-things-driving-an-uncertain-dollar?post=511003

               

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

General Dynamics raises 2025 revenue outlook to $51.2B while increasing EPS forecast to $15.05–$15.15 amid record orders and strong Marine growth

 

BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) declares $5.21/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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The Moening Call---Trump closes trade deal with Japan

 

The Morning Call

 

7/23/25

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/market-recaps/momo-massacred-meme-stocks-melt-bonds-bullion-bitcoin-surge

 

                Tuesday in the technical stats.

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum

            https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings

 

            JP Morgan traders spot unusual pattern.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgan-traders-spot-unusual-pattern-fear-rising-market-complacency-record-crowding

           

            The technical setup for gold.

            https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/gold-prices-eye-breakout-as-us-eu-trade-tensions-and-fed-uncertainty-mount?post=510690

 

            The capitalization of Nvidia versus the entire defensive sector.

            https://x.com/Todd_Sohn/status/1947703258710950280

 

            The meme craze rekindled.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-meme-craze-2021-all-over-again-here-are-most-shorted-stocks-could-soar

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 0.8% while purchase applications were up 3.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew slightly slower than in the prior week.

 

The July Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at -20 versus forecasts of -3.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/22/richmond-fed-manufacturing-activity-deteriorated-july-2025

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Trusting our economic statistics (or not).

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2025/07/how-much-longer-can-we-trust-our-economic-statistics

 

                          Inside retail sales.

                          https://wolfstreet.com/2025/07/21/where-americans-spend-their-trillions-a-year-on-goods-and-how-that-changed-over-time/

 

                          Update on the RecessionAlert weekly leading economic index.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/07/21/recession-weekly-leading-economic-index

 

                          Shipping data shows consumers still consuming.

                          https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/07/updating-transport-and-consumer.html

 

            Overnight News

 

US President Trump announced that they completed a massive deal with Japan, which he said is perhaps the largest deal ever made with Japan to invest USD 550bln into the US and will open their country to trade including cars and trucks, rice and certain other agricultural products, and other things. Trump added that Japan will pay reciprocal tariffs to the US of 15% and is forming a JV with the US in Alaska and they are going to make a deal on LNG.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/japanese-auto-stocks-soar-trump-trade-deal

 

US President Trump said Europe is coming to Washington for trade talks on Wednesday.

 

US President Trump will meet UK PM Starmer during his weekend trip and they will seek to formalize a trade deal.

 

            Monetary Policy

 

              Powell is a lame duck.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/weekly-market-pulse-the-lamest-of-ducks/?src=news

 

              Bessent calls for fundamental reset of financial regulations.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bessent-calls-fundamental-reset-financial-regulations

 

              Trump is playing with fire.

              https://www.aei.org/economics/trump-is-playing-with-federal-reserve-fire/

 

            Inflation

 

              Amazon raises prices on hundreds of essentials.

              https://mishtalk.com/economics/amazon-increases-prices-on-hundreds-of-essentials-after-saying-it-wouldnt/

 

           

 

     Investing

 

            The Nvidia of crypto.

            https://www.riskhedge.com/outplacement/the-nvidia-of-crypto/rcm?utm_campaign=RH-144&utm_content=RH144OP791&utm_medium=ED&utm_source=rcm

 

            The latest from John Hussman.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2025/07/22/impression-of-invincibility

 

            Have the bond vigilantes dismissed the inflation/tariff risks?

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/have-the-bond-vigilantes-dismissed-tariff-inflation-risk/#more-24336

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Genuine Parts Non-GAAP EPS of $2.10 beats by $0.04, revenue of $6.2B beats by $90M

Canadian National Railway GAAP EPS of C$1.87, revenue of C$4.27B

 

Canadian National Railway (NYSE:CNI) declares CAD 0.8875/share quarterly dividend.

 

General Dynamics GAAP EPS of $3.74 beats by $0.21, revenue of $13B beats by $630M

 

McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) declares $1.77/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

            Wednesday morning humor.

            Hunter Biden Warns That Without Illegal Immigrants, The Price Of Prostitutes And Crack Will Skyrocket | Babylon Bee

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.