The Morning Call
7/1/25
The
Market
Technical
Monday in the
charts.
Monday in the technical stats.
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/momentum
https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings
The latest from
Goldman’s flows guru.
The latest from JP
Morgan’s trading desk.
Gold range game.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/golds-range-games-breakout-looms-dollar-cracks
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The June Chicago PMI was reported at 40.4
versus forecasts of 43.0.
The June Dallas
Fed manufacturing index was 12.7 versus predictions of -10.0.
International
The Q2 Japanese large
manufacturers index was 13 versus consensus of 10; the Q2 large
nonmanufacturers index was 34, in line; the Q2 small manufacturers index was +1
versus -1; the June consumer confidence index was 34.5 versus 33.6.
The June Japanese manufacturing
PMI was 50.1 versus expectations of 50.4; the June Chinese manufacturing PMI
was 50.4 versus 49.0; the June German manufacturing PMI was 49.0, in line; the
June EU manufacturing PMI was 49.5 versus 49.4; the June UK manufacturing PMI
was 47.7, in line.
The June EU flash
CPI came in at 0.3%, in line.
Other
Update from Scott Gannis, my favorite
optimist.
https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2025/06/big-picture-charts-modest-growth-and.html
Last Friday’s
personal income report was not nearly as bad as it appeared on the surface.
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/06/27/that-drop-in-consumer-income-in-may-was-a-false-recession-alarm/
Two measures of consumer attitudes.
Recession Alert weekly leading economic indicator.
Pay close attention to consumer spending on
goods.
https://bonddad.blogspot.com/2025/06/pay-close-attention-to-real-personal.html
Overnight
News
US narrows trade
focus to secure deals, while officials were seeking phased deals with the most
engaged countries as they race to find agreements by July 9th, according
to FT.
Japan's Chief
Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said Japan won't do anything to sacrifice the
agricultural sector in US trade talks, while Farm Minister Koizumi said he
won't comment on US President Trump's posts regarding Japan's rice imports.
EU is to accept
Trump’s universal tariff but seeks key exemptions and it wants the US to commit
to lower rates on key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors
and commercial aircraft, while it is pushing for quotas and exemptions to effectively
lower a 25% tariff on automobiles and car parts as well as a 50% tariff on
steel and aluminum, according to Bloomberg.
Monetary
Policy
The Fed’s ‘transitory’ mistake is affecting
its outlook.
Fiscal
Policy
The twin deficits---one out of two is bad.
https://talkmarkets.com/content/us-markets/the-twin-deficits--one-out-of-two-is-bad?post=505906
The senate outdoes the house in fiscal irresponsibility.
The canary in the big, beautiful coal mine.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bond-canary-big-beautiful-coal-mine
Financial
System
Banks pass latest stress test with flying
colors.
Investing
A recipe for
doubling your stock returns.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/27/business/stock-market-investing-index-funds.html
Risk appetite
rebounds.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-appetite-rebounds-for-global-strategies-after-tariff-tantrum/
But uncertainty
rules.
Time to chase US
stocks?
https://sherwood.news/markets/it-might-be-time-for-the-chase-in-us-stocks/
Don’t lose sight
of the big picture.
https://joefahmy.com/2025/06/29/dont-lose-sight-of-the-bigger-picture
Is the bond bear market about to end?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/slr-could-it-end-bond-bear-market
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
AbbVie to acquire Capstan
Therapeutics for up to $2.1B in cash
What
I am reading today
Intensifying
your focus.
https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2025/06/best-trading-practice-intensifying.html
The changing role
of men in society.
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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