The Morning Call---Powell admists little progress on inflation

 

The Morning Call

 

4/17/22

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dollar-yields-soar-fed-fears-trump-ww3-worries

 

Note: yesterday, the S&P reset its 50 DMA from support to resistance.  The next visible support level is the 100 DMA (~4921).

 

            Oversold but still room to hedge.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/oversold-still-room-hedge-wisely

 

            Assessing the prospects for a pullback.

            https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/assessing-the-prospect-for-a-pullback.html

 

            Where is the downside tipping point?

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/wheres-the-downside-tipping-point-for-us-stocks/

 

            Seasonality matters.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-charts-which-short-term-seasonality-matters

 

            Margin debt continues to expand.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/04/16/margin-debt-surges-as-bulls-leverage-bets

 

            Citi says gold headed for $3000/oz.

            https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/16/gold-is-shining-bright-like-a-diamond-and-could-hit-3000-says-citi-.html

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 3.3% while purchase applications were up 5.0%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales grew slower than in the prior week.

 

                          March industrial production rose 0.4%, in line.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/04/industrial-production-increased-04-in.html

 

                        International

 

The March Japanese trade balance was +Y366.5 billion    versus forecasts of -Y280.0 billion.

 

March UK CPI was +0.6% versus predictions of +0.5%; core CPI was +0.6% versus +0.3%.

 

March EU CPI was up 0.8%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Powell admits little progress on inflation.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/political/watch-live-fed-chair-powell-explain-why-cuts-are-still-table-despite-soaring-inflation

 

            Inflation

 

              How concerning is last week’s inflation number?

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/04/15/weekly-market-pulse-are-higher-interest-rates-good-for-the-economy/?src=news

 

              Update on the Campbell soup price indicator.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/04/campbells-tomato-soup-price-resumes.html

 

            Recession

 

              A deep dive into Monday’s retail sales number.

              https://wolfstreet.com/2024/04/15/our-drunken-sailors-binge-despite-higher-interest-rates-and-the-fed-watches-them-nervously/

 

            The Financial System

 

              The threats to the global financial system.

              https://www.ft.com/content/0b78c68b-c65c-4080-b779-17041c290eaa

 

    Bottom line

 

            The next bitcoin halving is upon us.

            https://www.npr.org/2024/04/16/1244173751/bitcoin-halving-rally-crypto

 

            The reflation trade is the bullish narrative.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/reflation-trade-new-bullish-narrative

 

            Investment thoughts from Seth Klarman.

            https://www.investmenttalk.co/p/15-more-ideas-from-seth-klarmans

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Supercharged spying provisions buried in FISA reauthorization bill.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/political/supercharged-spying-provision-buried-terrifying-fisa-702-reauthorization

 

 

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