The Morning Call--Central banks are wrong about rate cuts

 

The Morning Call

 

4/16/24

 

The Market

         

          Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dollar-oil-gold-jump-stocks-bonds-dump-ww3-risk-reignites

 

            What happens after broad selling follows a broad advance?

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2024/04/broad-selling-after-broad-advance-what.html

 

            Market confirms break in bullish trend.

            Cracks Appear In The Market's Bullish Armor - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

            Sell thresholds triggered.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-freefall-cta-sell-threshold-triggered

 

            Down but not out.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/are-you-seeing-panic

 

            Pricing in higher inflation.

            https://allstarcharts.com/big-mac-indicator-2024/

 

            Gold fails to make new highs despite Iran’s attack on Israel.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-14/gold-xauusd-jumps-after-iran-strike-against-israel-stokes-haven-demand?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            The dollar is being supercharged by ‘higher for longer’.

            https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollars-rally-supercharged-by-diverging-us-rate-outlook-2024-04-15/

 

            Stocks and bonds not so much

            https://www.ft.com/content/49a21c3f-5a99-4f76-96f6-11899057378a

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

March housing starts fell 14.7% versus estimates of -0.8%; March building permits were down 4.3% versus -0.7%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-housing-starts-collapsed-march-biggest-drop-covid-lockdowns

 

                          The April housing index was 51, in line.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/04/nahb-builder-confidence-unchanged-in.html

 

                                 

 

                        International

 

The February UK unemployment rate was 4.2% versus predictions of 4.0%; February (3mo/Y) average earnings were up 5.6% versus +5.5%.

 

The February EU trade balance was E23.6 billion versus forecasts of E17.9 billion; the April economic sentiment index was 43.9 versus 37.2.

 

Q1Chinese GDP grew 1.6% versus expectations of +0.9%; March YoY retail sales were up 3.1% versus +4.5%; March YoY fixed asset investments were up 4.5% versus +4.2%.

 

March German PPI rose 0.2% versus consensus of +0.1%; the April economic sentiment index was 42.9 versus 35.9.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Rate cuts off the table near term.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/rate-cuts-off-the-table-for-near-term-outlook-futures-market/

 

              Central banks are wrong about rate cuts (must read).

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/central-banks-are-wrong-about-rate-cuts

 

            Recession

 

              The latest GDP nowcasts.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2024/04/gdp-forecasts-brighten-yet-further

 

              A resilient global economy masks growing debt and inequality.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-15/global-economy-soft-landing-masks-growing-debt-inequality?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Johnson & Johnson press release (NYSE:JNJ): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.71 beats by $0.06.

Revenue of $21.4B (+2.3% Y/Y) in-line.

 

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) declares $1.24/share quarterly dividend, 4.2% increase from prior dividend of $1.19.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Inside Alhambra.

            See Spain’s fabled Alhambra as few have ever before (nationalgeographic.com)

 

            Nine red flags that could trigger an audit.

            https://money.usnews.com/money/personal-finance/slideshows/9-red-flags-that-could-trigger-a-tax-audit

 

            The 67 hour rule.

            https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/the-67-hour-rule/ar-BB1loQZX

 

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