The Morning Call---When rate cuts?

 

The Morning Call

 

4/19/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bitcoin-bullion-bid-hawkish-fedspeak-hammers-stocks-bonds

 

            Down is the new up.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/down-new

 

            Tech near breaking key support levels.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tech-verge-cracking-next-cta-liquidation-level-triggered-nvidia-semis-enter-correction

 

            Huge bond wagers make some hedge funds potentially too big to fail.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/huge-bond-wagers-make-some-hedge-funds-too-big-fail-imf-warns

 

            Gold. The ultimate everything hedge.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/gold-ultimate-everything-hedge

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          March existing home sales fell 4.3% versus consensus of -2.2%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/04/nar-existing-home-sales-decreased-to_18.html

 

The March leading economic indicators were down 0.3% versus expectations of -0.1%.

 

                        International

 

                          The March Japanese CPI was up 0.2% versus estimates of +0.1%.

 

                          The March German PPI was up 0.2% versus projections of 0.0%.

 

March UK retail sales were flat versus forecasts of +0.3%; ex fuel, they were up 0.3% versus 0.0%.

 

                       

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Futures point to a rate cut in September at the earliest.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/rate-cut-forecast-now-seen-for-september-at-earliest/

 

              Some economists think it may not occur until 2025.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/17/wall-street-pushes-out-rate-cut-expectations-sees-risk-of-no-action-until-2025.html

 

              On the other hand……..

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/federal-reserve-clearly-trapped

                         

              Warning from the small business survey.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/economic-warning-nfib

 

    Bottom line.

 

            Does Shiller’s CAPE ratio mean revert?

            https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2024/04/17/cape-is-high-should-you-care/

 

            Dividend futures point to dividend cuts.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/04/turbulence-signaled-by-s-500-dividend.html

 

            Peak oil demand is not imminent.

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/04/standard-chartered-says-peak-oil-demand-is-not-imminent.html

 

            Will ten year Treasury yields go back to 5%?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-18/treasuries-vanguard-warns-10-year-yields-risk-spiking-back-to-5?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

            Net zero?

            https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/04/net-zero-oops-never-mind.php

 

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