The Morning Call--Rate cuts now a matter of if, not just when.

 

The Morning Call

 

4/12/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-surge-goldgasms-record-high-after-adjusted-ppi-sparks-buying-frenzy

 

            Gold fires a warning shot.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/godl-precious-metal-soars-above-2400-after-sudden-gap-higher

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                        International

 

February Japanese industrial production fell 0.6% versus predictions of -0.1%.

 

February UK GDP grew 0.1%, in line; the February trade balance was L-14.2 billion versus L-14.5billion; February industrial production was up 1.1% versus 0.0%; February YoY construction output was down 2.0% versus down 1.0%.

 

The March Chinese trade balance was $58.2 billion versus consensus of $70.2 billion.

 

March German CPI was up 0.4%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

            The Fed

 

              Next rate cut not until November?

              https://disciplinefunds.com/2024/04/10/no-or-november/

 

              From the Fed whisperer: Rate cuts are now a matter of if, not just when.

              https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-rate-cuts-are-now-a-matter-of-if-not-just-when-144a978e?mod=economy_lead_pos3

 

              Larry Summers says next Fed rate move may be a hike.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-10/summers-says-have-to-seriously-consider-next-fed-move-is-a-hike?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              Earmark madness.

              https://www.city-journal.org/article/earmark-madness

 

              Responsibility for the national debt/deficit falls on both parties.

              https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/columnist/2024/04/10/inflation-biden-economy-americans-spending-income-wages/73275197007/

 

              Who pays the taxes?

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-secret-progressive-income-tax-fair-share-3b19ba41?mod=opinion_lead_pos4

 

            Inflation

 

              Beneath the headlines, inflation is behaving very badly.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/04/beneath-the-skin-of-cpi-inflation-march-inflation-behaves-very-badly-saga-far-from-over.html

 

            Recession

 

              The consensus is that the probability of recession is declining.

              https://www.apolloacademy.com/us-recession-probability-declining/

 

            Soft landing or no landing?

            https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/11/business/economy/federal-reserve-soft-no-landing.html

 

     Bottom line.

 

            The argument against focusing on dividends.

            https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/there-is-nothing-special-about-dividends

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

BlackRock press release (NYSE:BLK): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $9.81 beats by $0.44.

Revenue of $4.73B (+11.4% Y/Y) beats by $20M.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Friday morning humor:  Unfortunately, this guy is supposed to be defending us.

            https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2024/04/11/us-navy-deletes-embarrassing-photo-n2637633

 

                Who was Mary Magdalene?

            Who was Mary Magdalene? Historians are still trying to figure that out. (nationalgeographic.com)

 

 

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