The Morning Call---Immigration, employment and economic growth

The Morning Call

 

4/18/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday on the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/crude-crash-saves-stocks-cta-slaughter-bonds-bid-bitcoin-battered

 

            Triggers were crossed.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/triggers-were-crossed-ten-things-know-morning

 

            Oil and bonds.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cross-asset-update-checking-oil-bonds

 

            Gold showing resilience.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/golds-resilience-shows-currency-crisis-isnt-far-away

 

            The VIX is rising.

            https://www.ft.com/content/dddd996e-0ac0-48cf-b76a-99745e7b4c56

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly jobless claims totaled 212,000 versus predictions of 215,000.

 

The April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index came in at 15.5 versus estimates of 1.5.

 

                        International

 

February EU YoY construction output was down 0.4% versus expectations of +1.1%.

 

                        Other

 

                          LA port traffic up YoY.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/04/la-port-traffic-increased-year-over.html

 

            The Fed

 

Latest Beige Book report shows both economic growth and inflation pressures subdued.

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/beige-book-reveals-economy-far-worse-shape-white-house-claims

 

              Higher for longer keeping dollar strong.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-17/dollar-power-fed-s-higher-for-longer-is-turning-the-currency-screws?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              And interest rates rising.

              https://www.capitalspectator.com/higher-for-longer-risk-for-rates-drives-up-treasury-yields/

 

              And stocks falling.

              https://www.downtownjoshbrown.com/p/red-lines

 

             Fiscal Policy

 

              Soaring debt puts policy makers in tough position.

              https://www.ft.com/content/70823840-2549-456c-8e29-4bdadc940444

 

            Recession

 

              Immigration, employment and economic growth (must read).

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/04/17/immigration-and-its-impact-on-employment

 

              World faces stunted growth potential.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-04-17/global-economy-latest-world-faces-woeful-outlook-of-stunted-potential?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

                           But IMF says US will grow faster than G7 peers.

              https://www.ft.com/content/3b819571-662d-4185-9ca5-c7e682b55700

 

                          Global turn away from free market policies worries economists.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/17/business/economy/industrial-policies-global-economy.html

 

            The Financial System

 

              Time to pay attention to funding risks again.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-time-pay-attention-funding-risks-again

 

    Bottom line.

 

            Have a plan for draw downs.

            https://allstarcharts.com/i-hate-drawdowns/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Sherwin Williams (NYSE:SHW) declares $0.715/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Expanded government surveillance provision passes house and goes to senate.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/political/senate-can-stop-expansion-government-surveillance

 

 

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