The Morning Call--Something is breaking

 

The Morning Call

 

4/10/24

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-suffer-conniptions-ahead-crucial-consumer-price-print

 

            Margin debt surges.

            Margin Debt Surges As Bulls Leverage Bets - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

            Trade of the decade.

            https://allstarcharts.com/trade-of-the-decade/

           

            Risk-on sentiment persists.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-on-sentiment-persists-defying-gravity-and-logic/

 

            Gold is now overbought.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-gold-charts-we-are-watching-time-chill

 

            Gold, inflation and interest rates.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-has-become-bigger-risk-stretched-gold-prices

 

            A warning from Goldman’s flows guru.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-flows-guru-warns-us-stocks-face-escalator-ride-elevator-ride-down

 

            Something is breaking.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/somethings-breaking

 

            I sold my IWN and GDX trading positions.

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 0.1% but purchase applications were down 5.0%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew slightly faster than in the prior week.

 

March CPI was up 0.4%versus estimates of +0.3%; core CPI was also up 0.4% versus +0.3%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/consumer-prices-print-hotter-expected-led-surge-energy-shelter-costs

 

                        International

 

                          March Japanese PPI was up 0.2% versus predictions of +0.3%.

 

                          March Chinese YoY vehicle sales rose 9.9% versus consensus of up 4.0%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Economic confidence slips in April.

                          https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2024/04/09/americans_economic_confidence_slips_in_april_1023819.html

 

                          Survey of consumer expectations.

                          https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/

 

                          Q1 retail vacancy rate unchanged.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/04/moodys-retail-vacancy-rate-unchanged-in.html

 

            The Fed

 

              The Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ dilemma.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/09/business/economy/interest-rates-inflation-federal-reserve.html

 

              Part 2.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-09/bullard-says-three-interest-rate-cuts-this-year-is-base-case?srnd=homepage-americas&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              Goldman and AMEX cut rates on savings accounts.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-do-they-know-goldman-amex-quietly-cut-rates-savings-accounts-fed-next

 

            Inflation

 

              New home prices ae down but still unaffordable to the average household.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2024/04/new-home-prices-fall-still-unaffordable.html

 

            Recession

 

              What recession?

              https://ritholtz.com/2024/04/what-recession-state-coincident-indicators/

 

            China

 

Yellen apparently didn’t do a very good job in addressing Chinese overproduction.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/04/yellen-and-biden-administration-incompetence-bullying-and-entitlement-rather-than-making-a-case-here-regarding-china-overproduction.html

 

     Bottom line.

 

            A look at Q1 earnings season.

            https://alhambrapartners.com/2024/04/07/weekly-market-pulse-a-new-paradigm/?src=news

 

            Market corrections matter more than you think (must read).

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2024/04/09/market-corrections-matter-more-lance-roberts

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2024/04/quotation-of-the-day-4601.html

 

 

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.