The Morning Call---Time to rent not buy stocks

 

The Morning Call

 

12/20/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Tuesday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedgies-hammered-retail-dash-trash-accelerates-oil-gold-jump

 

            Will the improvement in Market breadth last?

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-stock-markets-breadth-improving/

 

            The other side of the ‘expanding breadth’ narrative.

            https://www.ft.com/content/0fc7bc31-c5e7-488a-b9fa-1d64a5d5c2e7

 

            Overbought mania.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/powells-power-put-hate-and-overbought-mania

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications declined 1.5% while purchase applications were down 1.0%.

 

                          Month to date retail chain store sales growth was ahead of the prior week.

 

                        International

 

                          October EU YoY construction output fell 0.7% versus estimates of -1.0%.

 

The November Japanese trade balance was Y-776.4 billion versus projections of Y-962.4 billion.

 

November German PPO was -0.5% versus consensus of -0.3%; January consumer confidence was -25.1 versus -27.0.

 

November UK CPI was -0.2% versus forecasts of +0.1%; core CPI was -0.3% versus +0.2%.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boe-rate-cut-odds-soar-cable-tumbles-after-uk-inflation-slows-far-more-expected

 

                        Other

 

The Fed

 

After two Fed regional presidents throw a little cold water on the ‘Fed pivot’, the Fed whisperer pens a more dovish commentary.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-official-says-rate-cuts-could-be-needed-next-year-to-prevent-over-tightening-29d009ce

 

  Bank of Japan keeps rates negative.

  https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/bank-of-japan-sticks-to-negative-interest-rates-for-now-57fda8f8?mod=economy_lead_pos5

 

Inflation

 

  Inflation’s last mile.

  https://www.axios.com/2023/12/18/inflation-last-mile

 

Recession

 

  The case for the soft landing.

  https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/we-are-landing-this-plane-softly

 

              The CBO’s outlook for 2024.

              https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59840

 

              Share of mortgages in forbearance declines in November.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/12/mba-survey-share-of-mortgage-loans-in.html

 

    Bottom line

 

            Time to rent not buy stocks.

            Sell Cash, Buy Stocks As Powell Pivots? - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

FedEx Non-GAAP EPS of $3.99 misses by $0.21, revenue of $22.2B misses by $230M

Accenture declares $1.29 dividend

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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