The Morning Call---Is the stock market set to break out of its trading range?

 

The Morning Call

 

12/8/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

                      

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/japanic-attack-dollar-dumps-yen-strength-big-techs-rip-ahead-buyback-blackout

 

            Is the stock market set to break out of its trading range?

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/is-the-us-stock-market-set-to-break-out-of-its-trading-range/#more-21251

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

November nonfarm payroll rose by 199,000 versus consensus of 180,000; the unemployment rate was 3.7% versus 3.9%.

 

                        International

 

Q3 Japanese GDP was down 0.7% versus expectations of -0.5%; Q3 capital expenditures were down 0.4% versus -0.6%; Q3 private consumption was down 0.2% versus 0.0%; October YoY average cash earnings were up 1.5% versus +1.4%; October household spending was down 0.1% versus -0.2%.

 

November German CPI fell 0.4%, in line.

 

                        Other

 

The Fed

 

  Pay attention to how quantitative tightening is impacting liquidity.

  https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/deflating-qt-cushion-may-have-raised-red-fed-flag-mike-dolan-2023-12-06/?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=285481123&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8ziizzvBNooT9QCcd5knwS8cN5GourMrVVBZzJTFeJdinaBg-fsk-7ChO8e5mxCNsE_8c0Vs5_FXgs7YoAyaJ5yML_gw&utm_content=285481123&utm_source=hs_email

 

  Here is another take on that issue.  The point of both is that by mid-2024 there is                          the ‘potential’ for a liquidity problem---emphasis on ‘mid 2024’ and ‘potential’.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/end-fed-liquidity-pump-spells-trouble-markets

 

  The Fed can cut rates and still be ‘higher for longer’.

  https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-can-slash-rates-still-be-higher-longer-2023-12-06/?utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=285481123&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-931SUpPI_d1kQpbo0tvctgFckOT0OLSzP6xJ8WOiAlyoOIDg7u559_VNADmFiknEzMUTwAq2qRRwRGPsIqBp1alyqYtA&utm_content=285481123&utm_source=hs_email

 

 

  The peculiar market divide on the outlook for Fed rate cuts.

  https://www.ft.com/content/63a4e0ca-ae62-4b35-be18-d27afe4210f8

 

  Investors bet on rapid ECB rate cuts as economic outlook darkens.

  https://www.ft.com/content/e4fc88bd-d59d-45f4-b9b2-5f69a9dbc466

 

Fiscal Policy

 

  Health insurance costs before and after The Affordable Care Act.

  https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/12/health-insurance-cost-trends-before-and.html

 

Illegal immigrants being handed $5,000 gift cards and plane tickets as they cross the border.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/arizona-sheriff-illegal-immigrants-being-handed-5000-visa-gift-cards-cell-phones-and

 

Inflation

 

 Wholesale used car prices went down in November.

  https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/12/wholesale-used-car-prices-decreased-21.html

 

            China

 

              China’s economy not doing nearly as well as it says that it is.

  https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-economy-2023-chinese-government-62e847d0?mod=world_lead_pos3&utm_campaign=What%20I%20Am%20Reading&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=285481123&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_09Fx9RVeCNdIGDdCK-6AeLPkWW8ZyrzEADRSIZ0fODOXFrndBwNn4LIybjyS7zB4LjTtJyMthSU0WNio5oFRY6nINpQ&utm_content=285481123&utm_source=hs_email

 

              China’s weak trade data signals more economic pain to come.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-07/china-s-exports-expand-from-covid-hit-period-a-year-ago?srnd=premium&embedded-checkout=true&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

What I am reading today

 

            A neurologist’s tips to protecting your memory.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/06/well/mind/memory-loss-prevention.html

 

            The relentless pursuit of perfection has its drawbacks.

            https://www.safalniveshak.com/the-45th-lesson/

           

                        Quote of the day.

            https://cafehayek.com/2023/12/quotation-of-the-day-4475.html

 

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