The Morning Call--Still few signs of recession

 

The Morning Call

 

12/7/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/growth-scare-spooks-big-tech-black-gold-bond-yields-plunge

 

            New record cash levels.

            https://allstarcharts.com/new-record-cash-levels-investors-are-still-scared/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 220,000 versus estimates of 222,000.

 

                        International

 

                          Q3 (3^rd est.) EU GDP growth rate was -0.1%, in line.

 

The October Japanese leading economic indicator index was 108.7 versus consensus of 108.6.

 

The November Chinese trade balance was +$68.4 billion versus expectations of +$58.0 billion.

 

                        Other

               

                Macroeconomists survey on the outlook.

                https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/12/ft-igm-booth-school-us-macroeconomists-survey-on-the-outlook

 

The Fed

 

  Money supply continues to collapse.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/money-supply-continues-its-biggest-collapse-great-depression

 

Fiscal Policy

 

  The scale of the government’s fiscal sloppiness.

  https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/the-scale-of-governments-fiscal-sloppiness/

 

              Higher interest rates are here to stay.

  https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/era-of-low-interest-rates-has-come-to-an-end-by-kenneth-rogoff-2023-12?utm_source=project-syndicate.org&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=authnote&

 

            Inflation

 

              New home affordability in October.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/12/new-home-affordability-in-october-2023.html

 

Recession

 

  More optimism from my favorite optimist.

  https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/12/some-big-picture-charts.html

 

  Still few signs of recession.

  https://www.capitalspectator.com/despite-us-resilience-recessionistas-still-expect-trouble/#more-21243

 

     Bottom line

 

Goldman says that it is time to buy the laggards.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/magnificent-7-bubble-bursts-goldman-says-buy-these-laggards

 

But short the cyclicals.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-says-short-cyclicals-bad-news-bad-news-narrative-looms

 

The next pain trade.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/extreme-bond-market-positioning-heralds-pain-trade

 

            Hope for a bull market but prepare for a bear.

            https://investorplace.com/2023/12/hope-for-a-bull-prepare-for-a-bear/

 

            The bear case for cryptocurrencies.

            https://www.ft.com/content/1222843b-ff71-4517-9e15-d643f8919cf0

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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