The Morning Call
12/6/23
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/lousy-labor-data-sends-yields-lower-bitcoin-big-tech-buck-soar
Rotation is the
lifeblood of the Market.
https://allstarcharts.com/rotation-is-the-lifeblood/
Trading on terror.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2023/12/trading-on-terror.html
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly mortgage applications
were up 2.8% while purchase applications declined 0.3%.
Month to date retail
chain store sales were dramatically lower than in the prior week.
Q3 nonfarm
productivity rose 5.2% versus consensus of +4.9%; unit labor costs fell 1.2%
versus -0.9%.
October job
openings (JOLTS) report showed a total of 8.83 million openings versus
predictions of 9.3 million.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/12/05/job-openings-jolts-october-2023
The October trade
balance was -$64.3 billion versus forecasts if -$64.2 billion.
The November
services PMI came in at 50.7, in line; the November composite PMI was 50.8,
also in line.
The November ISM nonmanufacturing
index was 52.7 versus estimates of 52.0.
The November ADP
private payrolls reported showed job increases of 103,000 versus projections of
130,000.
The December
economic optimism index was 40.0 versus expectations of 45.2.
International
October German factory
orders fell 3.7% versus consensus of +0.1%: the November construction PMI was 36.2
versus 39.0.
October EU retail
sales were up 0.1% versus predictions of +0.2%; the November construction PMI
was 43.3 versus 43.2.
Other
The
Fed
How many rate cuts next year?
https://www.ft.com/content/ac9b547d-306f-49fe-b940-98a8ae4f1395
The Taylor Rule says the Fed should already be
cutting.
https://mrzepczynski.blogspot.com/2023/12/back-to-monetary-policy-basics-with.html
Fiscal Policy
Why the US is careening towards bankruptcy.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2023/12/why-we-are-careening-toward-bankruptcy.php
Inflation
US
home prices increased YoY in October.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/12/corelogic-us-home-prices-increased-47.html
The
argument that inflation is still with us.
Recession
Is
economic activity lower than it seems?
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2023/12/is-economic-activity-really-a-lot-lower-than-it-seems
Signs
of a weakening job market (see JOLTS report above).
So
far corporations have dodged the impact of higher interest rates.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/28/business/economy/corporate-interest-rates.html
The
Financial System
Is the banking
system safe?
Bottom line
Historical Market
behavior during and after a rate pause.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-pauses-what-comes-next
More on valuation.
Is the S&P 500
investable?
https://alhambrapartners.com/2023/12/03/weekly-market-pulse-is-the-sp-500-still-uninvestable/
Wall Street
analysts are bullish on 2024.
Wall
Street Analysts Are Optimistic For 2024 - RIA (realinvestmentadvice.com)
November dividends
by the numbers.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/12/dividends-by-numbers-in-november-2023.html
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Quote
of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2023/12/quotation-of-the-day-4472.html
A contrarian take
on the costs on obesity.
Wednesday morning humor.
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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