The Morning Call
12/15/23
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the charts.
For the bulls.
Traders go all in
on great ‘Fed pivot’.
Odds favor a risk-on
positioning.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/risk-on-signal-for-global-markets-strengthens-after-fed-news/
From the Goldman desk.
TLT closes above its 200 DMA.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/king-tlt-0
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
The December NY
Fed manufacturing index came in at -14.5 versus projections of +2.0.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/empire-fed-manufacturing-unexpectedly-crashes-contraction
International
The December Japanese
flash manufacturing PMI was 47.7 versus estimates of 49.5; the flash services
PMI was 52.0, in line; the flash composite PMI was 50.4 versus 50.8.
The December German
flash manufacturing PMI was 43.1 versus predictions of 43.2; the flash services
PMI was 48.4 versus 49.8; the flash composite PMI was 46.7 versus 48.2.
The December EU
flash manufacturing PMI was 44.2 versus consensus of 44.6; the flash services
PMI was 48.1 versus 49.0; the flash composite PMI was 47.0 versus 48.0; the November
trade balance was E11.1 billion versus E14.0 billion.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/eurozone-pmis-paint-disheartening-picture-economy
The December UK
flash manufacturing PMI was 46.4 versus expectations of 47.5; the flash
services PMI was 52.7 versus 51.0; the flash composite PMI was 51.7 versus 50.8;
the December consumer confidence index was -22, in line.
December Chinese
YoY industrial production was up 6.6% versus forecasts of 5.6%; December YoY retail
sales were up 10.1% versus +12.5%; December YoY fixed asset investments were up
2.9% versus 3.0%; the November unemployment rate was 5.0%, in line.
Other
The perils of forecasting.
https://www.tker.co/p/tker-2023-chart-of-the-year
The Fed
Talk about a contrary opinionist. I don’t think that I have ever seen one as
strong as this.
Even though I have my doubts about a soft landing, I don’t think it wise
to vehemently disagree with the bond market.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/bond-markets-get-ahead-of-jerome-powell-again
A cynic’s take on the ‘Fed pivot’.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/now-it-all-makes-sense
What rising (or falling) interest rates mean.
https://www.econlib.org/a-very-good-question/
Fiscal Policy
Here is the fly in the ‘Fed pivot’ euphoria
ointment. Granted lower interest rates
will help. But this is a problem that
haunts developed countries as well as emerging markets---the problem being too
much debt that continues to grow. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/13/developing-nations-spent-record-high-on-debt-in-2022-world-bank.html
Recession
Update on big four
economic indicators.
Geopolitics
The
West’s false narrative about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Now read this and tell me the risks of a
European war aren’t going up.
Like I said.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
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