The Morning Call
12/14/23
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the charts.
Note: the S&P roared
yesterday on what the Market has interpreted as the ‘Fed pivot’. In the process, it reset its short term
trading range to an uptrend. The upper
boundary of the trend is presently ~4911.
However, the next resistance level is the upper boundary of its intermediate
term trading range ~4818, which is also its all time high. Both should present decent resistance. There is room for a trade but that is as far
as I will go. Remember, (1) it is not
clear a recession has been avoided and (2) history tells us to sell the Fed’s
first rate cut.
One money manager’s reaction.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-all-over-place-just-guessing
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial
jobless claims totaled 202,000 versus expectations of 220,000.
November retail sales
advanced 0.3% versus projections of -0.1%; ex autos, they were up 0.2% versus
-0.1%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/retail-sales-unexpectedly-surged-november
International
October Japanese
machinery orders were up 0.7% versus estimates
of -0.5%; October industrial
production was up 1.3% versus +1.0%.
Other
The
Fed
The FOMC wrapped
up its December meeting; and the result was not what many expected. Instead of the Fed pushing back on the
Markets which have been discounting a more dovish Fed, it seemingly took a lip
lock on the ‘Fed pivot’ scenario. The
Markets responded accordingly. Details
below.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-11
The ECB held rates
steady but cut outlook for growth and inflation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-holds-rates-steady-cuts-growth-inflation-outlooks
The Bank of
England held rates steady and reiterated ‘higher for longer’.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/boe-holds-rates-15-year-high-warns-still-some-way-go
Inflation
CPI less shelter (must read)
https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2023/12/cpi-less-shelter-is-only-14.html
The many faces of CPI.
What is
different now.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2023/12/12/stepping-on-rake-smead-capital
Recession
Does our dysfunctional
political environment impact Americans’ perception of the economy?
https://gregor.substack.com/p/fog-lifting
US/China trade shows signs of bottoming.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/12/us-china-trade-recession-shows-signs-of.html
China
Xi disappoints, offering few new economic
stimulus proposals.
Bottom line
Stocks versus
bonds in 2024.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kiss-bonds
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
Quote
of the day.
https://cafehayek.com/2023/12/quotation-of-the-day-4481.html
Bureaucracy
kills productivity.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/bureaucracy-kills-productivity-growth
The weird world of celebrity
training.
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for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
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