The Morning Call--Update on recession odds

 

The Morning Call

 

12/13/23

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/all-greed-no-fear-ahead-fed-vix-hits-4-year-low-crude-carnage-continues

 

Note: the S&P closed above the upper boundary of its short term trading range for a second day; if it remains there through the close today it will reset to an uptrend.

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications were up 7.4% while purchase applications were up 3.5%.

 

The November budget deficit was $314.0 billion versus estimates of  $301.0 billion.

 

November PPI was unchanged versus expectations of +0.1%; core PPI was also unchanged versus +0.2%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/core-producer-price-inflation-tumbles-20-near-3-year-lows

 

                       International

                       

 October UK GDP growth was -0.3% versus predictions of 0.0%; the October trade balance was L-4.5 billion versus L-1.7 billion; October industrial production fell 0.8% versus -0.1%; October YoY construction output grew 1.1% versus +1.2%.

                        https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/traders-fully-price-100bps-boe-rate-cuts-after-uk-gdp-plunges-october

 

Other

           

            The Fed

 

              Investors are expecting more rate cuts from the ECB and BOE than are likely.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rates-traders-expect-more-cuts-ecb-boe-will-deliver

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              A wealth tax would only be the start.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/wealth-tax-unrealized-gain-deduction-411bd087?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos5

 

Recession

             

              Will we actually avoid a recession?  None of these guys have a clue.

              https://www.morningstar.com/markets/markets-brief-will-we-actually-avoid-recession

 

              Update on recession odds.

              https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2023/12/us-recession-odds-recede-to-two-out-of.html  

 

                  Rising rates are starting to bite.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/americas-luck-running-out-rising-rates-start-bite

 

            Geopolitics

 

              Investor survey ranks geopolitics as 2024 biggest risk.

              https://www.axios.com/2023/12/11/world-economy-threat-geopolitics-2024

 

              IMF warns that world economy is on brink of cold war 2.

              https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/11/world-economy-on-brink-of-cold-war-two-imf-official-warns

 

            China

 

              China faces risk of a debt/deflation loop.

              https://www.ft.com/content/925e1ab5-dbf9-4c38-adaf-f4ffa44998c9

 

            The Bond Market

 

              Bond investors are too optimistic on rate cuts.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-12/best-bond-forecasters-of-2023-say-the-rally-is-doomed-to-fizzle?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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