The Morning Call
10/14/22
The
Market
Technical
Thursday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-purgensurge-after-hot-cpi-rate-hike-odds-soar
Note: it was quite
a day. The S&P dove initially, then bounced off its Fibonacci 50%
retracement level, closing above the 6/13/ low. But since it had only voided
that support on Wednesday, I am maintaining it as a viable support level. I
said yesterday that the news on CPI could set the Market’s direction through
election; and while I didn’t expect the results we got, it probably is a good
sign of further advances into the election. After that we move into the most
positive seasonal time of the year for stocks, i.e., the Holidays. So, this
bounce will likely have legs. To confirm that, the S&P needs to get through
the downtrend off its 8/16 high which currently is ~3732. As I note below, I
did nibble at stocks yesterday after the bounce off the 50% Fibonacci level;
but I am not going to chase prices higher
What was behind
yesterday’s staggering intraday reversal
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-was-behind-markets-staggering-intraday-reversal
As bond bets blow
up, financial instability increases.
King dollar’s
uncertain throne.
https://www.aier.org/article/king-dollars-uncertain-throne/
The strong dollar
is a risk to corporate profits.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
September retail
sales were flat with August versus forecasts of +0.2%; ex autos, they were up
0.1% versus -0.1%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/real-us-retail-sales-tumble-again-september
International
The August EU trade
balance was E-50.9 billion versus projections of E-37.0 billion.
September Chinese
CPI was +0.3% versus estimates of +0.4%; September YoY PPI was +0.9% versus
+1.0%.
Other
The
Fed
Monetary wisdom from Milton Friedman.
https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2022/10/monetary-wisdom-from-milton-friedman.html
The financial system is in better shape than some
think.
https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2022/10/charts-you-probably-havent-seen.html
Fiscal
Policy
UK does U turn on tax cuts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/uks-truss-announce-major-u-turn-ditch-tax-cut
Recession
IEA says OPEC+ production cut could tip world
into recession.
Bad policies are greasing the wheels for
recession.
Bottom line
These factors
outperform during a recession.
Investor Alert
Yesterday the High
Yield Portfolio Added to its positions in Walgreen (WBA) and Intel (INTC). The
Dividend Growth Portfolio Added new one quarter positions in Comcast (CMCSA),
Costco (COST) and Intuit (INTU).
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Kroger
to buy Albertson’s.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/kroger-combine-albertsons-246-billion-grocery-mega-merger
What
I am reading today
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