The Morning Call---The pension liability sandpile

 

The Morning Call

 

10/18/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-soar-huge-negative-delta-squeeze-or-because-our-economy-strong-hell

 

            Here is the fundamental rationale to explain the technical short squeeze.

            https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/s-p-500-why-todays-sizzle/

 

            What happens next?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chase-historic-short-squeeze-triggered-biggest-buy-program-history

                 

            How do you measure capitulation?    

            https://ramp.beehiiv.com/p/measure-capitulation

 

            What a stock market bottom looks like.

            https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/10/what-a-stock-market-bottom-looks-like/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew slightly slower than in the prior week.

 

September industrial production was up 0.4% versus estimates of +0.1%; capacity utilization was 80.3% versus 80.0%.

 

                        International

 

The October EU economic sentiment index was reported at -59.7 versus   predictions of -61.2; the October German economic sentiment index was -59.2 versus -65.7; the October German current condition index was -72.2 versus -69.0.\

 

                        Other

 

                          Weekly economic activity index.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/10/weekly-macroeconomic-activity-thru-10-8

 

                          Housing inventory continues to increase.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/10/housing-october-17th-weekly-update.html

 

                          Update on four high frequency economic indicators.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/10/four-high-frequency-indicators-for_17.html

 

            The Fed

 

              Avoiding financial crisis.

              https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2022/10/nobels-and-financial-crises.html

 

            Inflation

 

              A different perspective on rising prices.

              https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2022/10/16/despite-what-the-experts-told-you-this-was-never-inflation/?sh=600907d45286

 

              After two years of shipping snarls, conditions are starting to improve.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/17/after-two-years-of-shipping-snarls-things-are-starting-to-turn-around.html

 

              Rent increases continued to cool in September.

              https://www.realtor.com/research/september-2022-rent/

 

     Bottom line

 

            Hold opinions loosely.

            https://humbledollar.com/2022/10/hold-opinions-loosely/

 

            Superbubble’s final act?

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/10/17/superbubbles-final-act-or-is-this-time-different

 

            The pension liability sandpile (must read)

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/10/14/pension-sandpile

 

            The latest from Morgan Stanley (also a must read).

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/wall-streets-biggest-bear-turns-bullish-expects-rally-sending-sp500-high-4150

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Johnson & Johnson press release (NYSE:JNJ): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.55 beats by $0.06.

Revenue of $23.8B (+2.0% Y/Y) beats by $360M.

 

What I am reading today

 

            For those interested in the Kennedy assassination.

            https://bookhaven.stanford.edu/2022/10/how-a-21-year-old-texas-college-student-became-lee-harvey-oswalds-only-friend?utm_source=blog

 

            The quest for self esteem is the surest sign of its absence.

            https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2022/10/what-trading-cannot-do-for-us.html

 

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