The Morning Call---Is it different this time?

 

The Morning Call

 

10/4/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

                

                 Monday in the charts.

                 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/pivot-dreams-spark-panic-bid-lehman-suisse-forgotten

 

I noted in yesterday’s Morning Call that stocks were very oversold, so a bounce seemed likely. Well, we got it in spades yesterday. While the S&P is back above its 6/13 low, voiding last Friday’s challenge (and to be sure, it demonstrates the strength of support at that level), I would not be chasing stocks higher. A five percent bounce off an extremely oversold Market, such as we had, is not atypical.

                 https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/10/03/the-big-short-squeeze-is-coming

 

       Remember the June squeeze.

     https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cyi9jpg1gv

 

                       Technical green shoots.

                 https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/greenshoots

 

                       Looking for a bottom.

                 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jpmorgans-delta-one-desk-goes-digging-bottom-what-it-found

 

                       Sell low, buy high.

                 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sell-low-buy-high-max-pain-market-remains-king

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          August construction spending fell 0.7% versus expectations of -0.3%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/10/construction-spending-decreased-07-in.html

 

The final September manufacturing PMI was reported at 52.0 versus projections of 51.8.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/10/03/september-s-p-global-us-manufacturing-pmitm-slowing-improvement

 

The September ISM manufacturing index was 50.9 versus consensus of 52.2.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/10/03/ism-manufacturing-index-down-in-september

 

                        International

 

                          August EU PPI was 5.0% versus estimates of 4.9%.

 

September Japanese YoY CPI was 2.8% versus forecasts of 3.0%; YoY core CPI was 2.8%, in line.

 

                        Other

                         

                          Ed Yardini echoes my ‘good news is bad news’ theme.

                          https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/the-economic-week-ahead-october-3/

 

                          More on the likely OPEC+ production cut.

                          https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/02/business/opec-plus-production-cut.html

                       

                        The inevitable (EU) financial crisis.

                         https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/10/the-inevitable-financial-crisis.html

 

IEA says EU faces unprecedented risk of gas shortages.

                                https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-paris-european-union-66a4bbc879a0782418abbd1555fdfbfc

 

                        Plus, inflation is getting harder to combat.

                        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-03/inflation-in-europe-now-looks-even-less-transitory-than-in-us?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            The Fed

 

              Fed officials beginning to disagree on the speed of tightening.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-01/fed-officials-begin-to-split-on-the-need-for-speed-to-peak-rates?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              The Bank of Japan spends $20 billion to defend the yen.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/japan-spent-20-billion-its-intervention-support-yen

 

            Inflation

 

              Home prices down again in August.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/10/black-knight-mortgage-monitor-home.html

 

     Bottom line.

 

Is it different this time?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/superbubbles-final-act-or-time-different

 

            A strong dollar is not bad for equities.

            https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntamny/2022/10/02/a-rising-or-strong-dollar-is-not-whats-holding-down-equities/?sh=1b5f2a893f1d

 

            How we got to this economy/Market.

            https://thereformedbroker.com/2022/10/02/you-werent-supposed-to-see-that/

 

            The investor opportunity index hits a two year high.

            https://thereformedbroker.com/2022/10/03/the-investor-opportunity-index-hits-a-two-year-high/

 

                Time to pay the piper.

            https://www.econlib.org/time-to-pay-the-piper/

 

            Managing your way through a bottom.

            https://ritholtz.com/2022/09/7th-inning-stretch/

 

                And what it might look like.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/impact-has-already-been-catastrophic-hedge-fund-cio-says-crash-dont-look-central-banks-save

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

        

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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