The Morning Call---Recession looms

The Morning Call

 

10/21/22

 

 

The Market

                                                                                            

    Technical

 

            Thursday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hawkish-fedspeak-housing-fubar-ha(~36330mmers-stocks-bonds

 

Note: The S&P ended the day below the downtrend off its 8/16 high which negates that trend. Support exists perhaps at the 6/16 trading low but certainly at the initial 50% Fibonacci retracement level (~3507). On the other hand, there is still that Santa Claus rally to be reckoned with.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/weak-semis-signal-recession-and-lower-yields-are-way

   

   Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

September existing home sales declined 1.5% versus predictions of -0.8%.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/10/20/existing-home-sales-down-1-5-in-september

 

 

The September leading economic indicator were down 0.4% versus consensus of -0.3%.

                            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/10/20/cb-lei-recession-increasingly-likely

 

                        International

 

  September UK retail sales fell 1.4% versus expectations of -0.5%;   ex      fuels, they were down 1.5% versus -0.3%; October consumer confidence was -47 versus -52.

 

  September Japanese CPI was up 0.3% versus forecasts of +0.4%.

                       

            The Fed

 

              Greg Mankiw weighs in on Fed policy.

              https://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2022/10/why-i-fear-fed-may-be-overdoing-it.html

 

              He is joined by Scott Grannis, hoping that the Fed will back off its hawkish stance.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2022/10/feds-rx-for-economy-should-be-tincture.html

                

              And Lance Roberts.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/10/20/deflation-will-become-the-problem-when-something-breaks

 

                     Recession

 

                 Recession looms.

                 https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/recession-fatigue-looms-consumers-begin-break

 

               Will the stumbling housing market drive the US into recession?

               https://www.capitalspectator.com/will-the-stumbling-housing-market-drive-the-us-into-recession/

 

                Cargo traffic at LA ports is tumbling.

                 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/cargo-flows-los-angeles-port-drop-trucking-firm-warns-2008-style-slowdown

 

            Geopolitics

 

              The Saudis may not be our friend but calling them a pariah is not helpful.

              https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/op-eds/a-punitive-response-to-opecs-cuts-will-likely-backfire

 

              Will another Xi Jinping term be a positive or negative for the US?

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-another-xi-jinping-term-might-be-in-u-s-s-interest-11666179763

 

            The coronavirus

 

              The macroeconomic consequences of lockdown.

              https://brownstone.org/articles/the-macroeconomic-consequences-of-lockdowns-and-the-aftermath/

 

    Bottom line.

 

            The latest from John Hussman.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/estimating-downside-market-risk

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        First known map of night sky found in medieval parchment.

            https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-03296-1

 

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