The Morning Call
10/19/22
The
Market
Technical
Tuesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-rise-recession-odds-hit-100-strong-hell-economy
Note: yesterday, the
S&P as well as most of the stocks in our Portfolios made gap up opens, then
the index as well as about 75% of our stocks closed those gaps intraday (a
plus). Also, the S&P ended above the downtrend off its 8/16 trading high. If
it finishes above that trend today, it will negate the trend and set itself up
for more follow through to the upside. As you can read below, a number of analysts,
including some prominent bears, are predicting that follow through into the
year end. Let’s get pass today first.
Four months into a
new bull market?
https://allstarcharts.com/chart-of-the-day-opportunity-risk/
BofA survey
screams ‘capitulation.’
More argument for
a buying tsunami.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/unleashing
The ten year
Treasury ‘fair value’ model suggests a limited rise in yields going forward.
https://www.capitalspectator.com/10-year-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-18-october-2022/
Watch bond
volatility.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/c3trwxwgcl
Fundamental
US
Weekly mortgage applications fell 4.5% while
purchase applications were down 3.7%.
September housing starts fell 8.1% versus
forecasts of -7.0; September building permits were up 0.4% versus -2.0%.
The October housing index came in at 38 versus
expectations of 43.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/10/nahb-builder-confidence-decreased.html
International
September UK CPI was
up 05% versus estimates of +0.4%; core
CPI was up 0.6% versus +0.5%.
September EU CPI
rose 1.2%, in line; September YoY construction output was up 2.3% versus +0.5%.
Other
Update
on big four economic indicators.
The straw man argument for government
intervention in the marketplace.
https://arnoldkling.substack.com/p/markets-fail-and-libertarianism-still
Economists
expect a recession and job losses in 2023.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/economists-now-expect-a-recession-job-losses-by-next-year-11665859869
Collapse in perspective home buyer traffic.
https://ritholtz.com/2022/10/home-buyer-traffic/
The
Fed
The Fed should be focused on its original
mission---lender of last resort.
https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/10/16/weekly-market-pulse-just-a-little-volatility/
Fed rate hikes approaching breaking point.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-rate-hikes-approaching-breaking-point
Recession
2002
recession probability track.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/10/the-2022-return-of-recession.html#.Y07rg3bMKUk
China
The only direction for Xi’s dictatorship.
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
What
I am reading today
The
good news is that the world is getting better.
https://www.aier.org/article/good-news-the-world-is-getting-better/
Visit Investing
for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home)
to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber
Service.
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