The Morning Call--The harsh reality of 'lag time'

 

The Morning Call

 

10/20/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

                   

            Wednesday in the charts.

             https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-bitcoin-dump-black-gold-buck-jump

 

Note: The S&P closed right on the downtrend off its 8/16 high, which stops the clock but does not negate the break. We will have to wait another day for directional guidance. Meanwhile, Goldman joined the year end melt up crowd.        

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-if-start-bounce-goldman-trader-lists-10-factors-can-propel-year-end-melt

 

            More support for the Santa Claus rally.

            https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/yes-virginia-there-is-a-santa-claus-rally/

 

 

            https://www.axios.com/2022/10/19/bonds-credit-market-distress-yields

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

               US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 214,000 versus consensus of 230,000.

 

The October Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was reported at -8.9   versus forecasts of -5.0.

 

                        International

 

The September Japanese trade balance was Y-2094 billion versus projections of Y-2167 billion.

.

September German PPI came in at 2.3% versus estimates of 1.3%

 

                        Other

 

                          September architecture billings remained healthy.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/10/aia-architecture-billings-index.html

 

            The Fed

 

              The harsh reality of ‘lag time’……..

              https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-10-18/fed-s-inflation-fight-is-testing-americans-patience?sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              ……means more rate increases.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/18/business/economy/federal-reserve-inflation-november-meeting.html

 

  This analyst thinks that the Fed ‘pivot’ is nearer than most think.

  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/raising-rates-has-set-debt-avalanche-motion

        

  The Fed released its latest Beige Book which didn’t tell us anything that we didn’t         already know, i.e., overall economic activity continues to grow albeit at a slow pace and the housing market is in the dumpster.

  https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/10/feds-beige-book-rising-mortgage-rates.html

 

Inflation

 

  Diesel supply crisis deepens.

  https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/10/diesel-crisis-deepens-as-inventories-fall-to-dangerous-levels.html

 

  Bread prices skyrocket in Europe.

  https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/19/business/europe-food-prices-inflation.html

 

  UK inflation rises double digits.

  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-19/uk-inflation-jumps-more-than-expected-to-40-year-high-of-10-1?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

Fiscal Policy

 

  To whom does the US government owe money?

  https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/10/september-2022-snapshot-of-who-owns-us.html#.Y1AwNnbMKUk

 

Geopolitics

 

  Germany’s worse nightmare.

  https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/germany-apokalypse-now

 

    Bottom line

 

            Predicting earnings growth and investment total return (must read).

            https://mailchi.mp/verdadcap/predicting-growth?e=b838bc224f

 

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Sherwin Williams (NYSE:SHW) declares $0.60/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

Genuine Parts press release (NYSE:GPC): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $2.23 beats by $0.18.

Revenue of $5.68B (+17.8% Y/Y) beats by $310M.

 

 

What I am reading today

           

Doing less.

            https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/always-opitimise-for-the-scarce-resource

 

                        London’s Natural History Museum’s wildlife photographer of the year winners.

            https://www.npr.org/sections/pictureshow/2022/10/13/1128370495/wildlife-photographer-of-the-year-2022-winners

 

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