The Morning Call---Signs of financial stress increasing

 

The Morning Call

 

10/6/22

 

It is Texas/OU weekend. I'm gone. Back next week.

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/black-gold-bond-yields-jump-stocks-dumpnpump

 

            Now what?

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/aaaand-its-gone-2-day-melt-erases-record-negative-delta-now-what

 

            Thrust signal triggered.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/thrust-signal-triggered-powerful-move-lows-says-bear-market-has-legs

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

                          Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 219,000 versus forecasts of 203,000.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/initial-jobless-claims-suddenly-jumped-last-week

 

The final September services PMI came in at 49.3 versus estimates of 49.2; the final composite PMI was 49.5 versus 49.3.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/10/05/september-s-p-global-services-pmi-business-activity-growth-under-pressure

 

The September ISM manufacturing index was 56.7 versus projections of 56.0; the nonmanufacturing index was 59.1 versus 60.5.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/10/05/ism-services-inches-down-in-september

 

                        International

 

                          August EU retail sales fell 0.3% versus expectations of -0.4%.

 

The September EU construction PMI was 45.3 versus consensus of 44.8; the September German construction PMI was 41.8 versus 43.0; the September UK construction PMI was 52.3 versus 49.0.

 

                        Other

           

Net absorption of apartments in Q3 was low and construction deliveries were even lower.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/10/apartments-net-absorption-very-low-in.html

 

The Fed

 

              More hedging from Fed officials.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-official-says-inflation-fight-will-take-time-despite-signs-of-progress-11664898319

 

              Why the Fed won’t be so quick to ease its fight against inflation.

              https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/04/why-the-federal-reserve-wont-be-so-quick-to-ease-up-on-its-fight-against-inflation.html

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              National debt tops $31 trillion.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/04/business/national-debt.html

 

    Bottom Line

 

            September dividends by the numbers.

            https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2022/10/dividends-by-numbers-in-september-2022.html#.Yz2teXbMKUk

 

If you don’t want to be depressed, then don’t read this:  the financial party is coming to an end.

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/10/satyajit-das-the-financial-party-is-coming-to-an-abrupt-end.html

 

            Stocks have just started to price in recession.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-05/citi-quants-say-us-stocks-have-just-started-pricing-in-recession?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

            Signs of financial stress are starting to rise.

            https://www.ft.com/content/3627d8b4-93cc-4dec-9fae-0e654fb941af

 

            When in doubt, rebalance.

            https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2022/10/05/the-witch-of-october-is-here-remember-short-term-pain-long-term-progress/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

                        Thursday morning humor.

            https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/10/omg-tv-art-has-imitated-life.php

 

            Pictures of NASA’s crash into that asteroid.

            https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/27/science/nasa-dart-asteroid-photos.html

 

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