The Morning Call
10/13/22
The
Market
Technical
Wednesday in the
charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-tread-water-ahead-cpi-chaos
More.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/mechanicalflow
Note: the S&P remained
below its 6/13 low for the third day, negating that level of support. However,
thus far, there has been little follow through, and stocks are again oversold. So,
a bounce should not be unexpected. All that said, the CPI number (see below) this
morning might be the determining directional factor prior to the
election---barring some exogenous event.
Fundamental
Headlines
The
Economy
US
Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 228,000
versus consensus of 225,000.
September CPI was
reported at +0.4% versus expectations of +0.2%; core CPI was +0.6% versus
+0.5%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-core-cpi-surges-40-year-highs
International
September Japanese PPI came in at +0.9% versus
estimates of +0.2%.
September German CPI was +1.9%, in line.
Other
US exports to China accelerated in August.
IMF global economic outlook (note: these guys
are hardly ever right).
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/11/business/imf-world-economy-forecast.html
Q3 US GDP nowcasts improve, but………
https://www.capitalspectator.com/us-economy-still-appears-on-track-for-rebound-in-q3-gdp-data/
The
Fed
Latest FOMC minutes confirm hawkish Fed.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-minutes-1
The effects of hubris.
Rebalancing the Fed.
https://www.city-journal.org/rebalancing-the-federal-reserve
An argument against Fed tightening (but notice
there are a lot of exceptions).
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/10/central-bank-myths-drag-down-world-economy.html
There is no Fed ‘pivot’ coming.
https://www.pragcap.com/theres-no-fed-pivot-coming/
Fiscal
Policy
The never ending state of rotten, excessive
government
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/oct/10/the-never-ending-state-of-rotten-and-excessive-gov/
Inflation
Outlook for inflation.
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1117094/whither-long-term-inflation
Geopolitics
Protests across the EU.
The energy picture just keeps getting worse.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/nopec-bill-wont-bring-oil-prices-down
Bottom line
Bill Gross argues
for buying bonds.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/10/12/carry-on
Surviving as a
money manager.
https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2022/10/12/the-survival-game/
A study of the accuracy
of analysts’ earnings estimates.
https://mailchi.mp/verdadcap/the-sages-of-wall-street?e=%5BUNIQID%5D
News on Stocks in Our Portfolios
Fastenal press release (NASDAQ:FAST): Q3 GAAP EPS of $0.50 beats by $0.02.
Revenue
of $1.8B (+16.1% Y/Y) beats by $20M.
Fastenal
(FAST) declares $0.31/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
BlackRock
press release (NYSE:BLK): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $9.55 beats by $2.28.
Revenue
of $4.31B (-14.7% Y/Y) beats by $140M.
Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX) declares $0.79/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous
What
I am reading today
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