Thursday, September 15, 2022

The Morning Call--The six horsemen of a bear market

 

The Morning Call

 

9/15/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dead-cat-bounce-dies-after-tuesdays-trouncing-long-bond-bid-stocks-skid

 

            Don’t fight the trend.

            https://allstarcharts.com/dont-fight-the-trend/

 

            Stay cautious on gold.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cgmerk5ybv

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 213,000 versus projections of 226,000.

 

August retail sales rose 0.3% versus estimates of 0.0%; ex autos, they fell 0.3% versus +0.1%.

 

The September NY Fed manufacturing index was reported at -1.5 versus expectations of -13.0; the September Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was -9.9 versus +2.8.

 

                        International

 

The July EU trade balance was E-34.0 billion versus consensus of E-26.2 billion,

 

The August Japanese trade balance was Y-2817.3 billion versus predictions of Y-2348.2 billion.

 

August German PPI came in at +0.1% versus forecasts of -0.7%.

 

                        Other

 

                          US mortgage rates top 6%.

                          https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-mortgage-interest-rates-top-6-first-time-since-2008-2022-09-14/

 

                          One measure of consumer confidence showed 5%+ increase in August.

                          https://morningconsult.com/2022/09/14/consumer-confidence-rose-in-august-breaking-yearlong-slump/

 

                          US household incomes were flat for a second year in a row.

                          https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-incomes-were-flat-last-year-census-figures-show-11663079099

 

     Bottom line

 

            The six horsemen of a bear market.

            https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2022/09/14/six_potential_horsemen_of_financial_apocalypse_853205.html

 

            Don’t give up on bonds.

            https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1113571/are-bond-investors-making-a-mistake-by-bailing-out

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Some helpful hints on how to stay safe in a flood (ignore the political commentary).

            https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/09/what-should-you-do-during-a-flood-stay-out-of-the-water.html

 

                        Thursday morning humor.

            https://ritholtz.com/2022/09/the-first-totally-honest-stock-market-story/

 

 

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