The Morning Call---The global race to raise rates

 

The Morning Call

 

9/20/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yield-curve-inversion-accelerates-stocks-flat-crypto-clubbed-ahead-fed

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew less rapidly than in the prior week.

 

August housing starts rose 12.2% versus estimates of +1.8%; building permits declined 10.0% versus -3.0%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-building-permits-crash-august-multi-family-starts-hit-record-high

 

                          The September housing index came in at 46 versus forecasts of 47.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/09/nahb-builder-confidence-declined-in.html

 

                        International

 

                          August Japanese CPI was reported at +0.4% versus predictions of +0.2%.

 

                          August German PPI was 7.9% versus expectations of 1.6%.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update on weekly economic activity.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/09/weekly-economic-activity-through-september-10th

 

                          The dollar’s rise spells trouble for the global economy.

                          https://www.wsj.com/articles/dollars-rise-spells-trouble-for-global-economies-11663437428

 

            The Fed

 

              The Fed’s testing time.

              https://blogs.cfainstitute.org/investor/2022/09/13/the-feds-time-of-testing-is-this-where-the-trouble-will-stop/

 

              The global race to hike rates.

              https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-19/central-bank-rate-hikes-risk-global-recession-in-2023?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

              The dollar’s strength is telling the Fed to chill.

              https://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2022/09/the-dollars-strength-is-telling-powell.html

 

              Swedish central bank raises rates 100bp.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sweden-shocks-markets-record-100bps-rate-hike-it-rushes-hit-its-terminal-rate

 

            Fiscal Policy

 

              More on student loan forgiveness.

              https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/09/taxing-mechanical-engineers-and-subsidizing-drama-majors.html

 

              The deficit may have declined but the total debt/GDP keeps growing.

              https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/09/19/deficit-reduction-is-it-reality-or-a-mirage

 

            Inflation

 

              The latest from David Stockman.

              https://brownstone.org/articles/inflation-where-are-we-now/

 

            Recession

 

              Predicting the next recession.

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/09/predicting-next-recession.html

 

              Walmart and Target cancelling billions of dollars in orders.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/why-are-walmart-and-other-major-us-retailers-canceling-billions-dollars-orders

 

              Europe’s economy and living standards are plummeting.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/europes-economy-and-living-standards-are-plummeting

 

     Bottom line

 

            More on valuation.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/09/19/august-2022-market-valuation-inflation-and-treasury-yields

 

            Rising bond yields change the calculus for owning stocks.

            https://www.wsj.com/articles/rising-bond-yields-change-the-calculus-for-stocks-11663516082

 

            RIP TINA.

            https://www.ft.com/content/1e563ac0-a88c-4b29-a36c-0ca6b4b42e15

 

            Estimating future stock returns.

            https://alephblog.com/2022/09/15/estimating-future-stock-returns-june-2022-update/

 

            The case for gold.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/worlds-largest-hedge-fund-makes-ultimate-case-gold

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Mastercard (NYSE:MA) declares $0.49/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous

 

What I am reading today

 

  Thoughts on climate change.

  https://www.lewrockwell.com/2022/09/david-stockman/why-the-climate-crisis-is-a-big-hoax/

 

  The lesson of Jan Karski.

  https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/09/jan-karskis-message-3.php

           

  Four reasons for not succeeding.

  https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2022/09/four-reasons-you-may-not-be-succeeding.html

 

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