The Morning Call---Oooops

 

The Morning Call

 

 

9/13/22

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Monday in the charts

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-squeeze-continues-bonds-dollar-dump-ahead-cpi

 

Note: the S&P pushed through the upper boundary of the very short term downtrend off its mid-August high and closed above its 100 DMA for the second day (if it remains there through the close today [I mistakenly said Wednesday in yesterday’s Morning Call], it will revert to support). However, it still faces multiple challenges to the upside: (1) the 200 DMA, (2) the upper boundary of its short term downtrend and (3) it has now made two gap up opens in a row.

 

            Don’t get greedy.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/cyiqcvcgxu

 

            How stocks behave post mid-term elections.

            https://investorplace.com/hypergrowthinvesting/2022/09/why-this-selloff-is-perfect-for-a-stock-breakout/?utm_source=rcm&utm_medium=editorial

 

            Keep your eye on gold.

            https://allstarcharts.com/dont-lose-sight-of-gold/

 

            A perfect storm is about to hammer the dollar.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bear-traps-our-highest-conviction-trade-selling-dollar

 

            Will the dollar weaken?

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-11/zoltan-pozsar-sees-a-new-dollar-regime-his-longtime-collaborator-disagrees?sref=loFkkPMQ

           

            If not, will it crash the global economy?

            https://www.pragcap.com/will-the-surging-dollar-crash-the-global-economy/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew more rapidly than in the prior week.

 

The August small business optimism index was 91.8 versus forecasts of 91.1.

 

August CPI was +0.1% versus expectations of -0.1%; core CPI was +0.6% versus +0.3%.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/us-consumer-prices-blow-away-expectations-rise-27th-straight-month

 

                        International

 

                          The July UK unemployment rate was 3.6% versus predictions of 3.8%.

 

                          August Japanese PPI was +0.2% versus estimates of +0.4%.

 

                          August German CPI was +0.3%, in line.

 

September EU economic sentiment was -60.7 versus consensus of -58.3; September German economics sentiment was -61.9 versus -60.0.

                        

                        Other

 

                          Weekly indicators of economic activity.

                          https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/09/weekly-indicators-of-economic-activity-through-september-3rd

 

                          Update on four high frequency economic indicators.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/09/four-high-frequency-indicators-for_12.html

 

                          Mortgage equity withdrawals still high in August.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/09/mortgage-equity-withdrawal-still-strong.html

 

            The Fed

 

More funny government accounting: the Fed’s coming operating losses and the federal budget deficit.

              https://www.aier.org/article/federal-reserve-operating-losses-and-the-federal-budget-deficit/

 

                  QT puts the bond market on shakier ground.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/11/business/fed-treasury-market.html

 

                  And potentially negatively impacts liquidity.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/liquidity-fated-scupper-smooth-running-feds-qt

 

                Inflation

 

              Inflation shows signs of easing in August.

              https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-showed-signs-of-easing-in-several-industries-in-august-11662888602?mod=hp_lead_pos1

 

                  NY Fed inflation expectations survey plunge to two year low.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/deflation-deck-ny-fed-inflation-expectations-plunge-2-year-low-dragged-tumbling-gas-prices

 

    Bottom line

 

            Update on valuation.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/09/12/the-q-ratio-and-market-valuation-august-update

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/09/09/market-cap-to-gdp-august-buffett-valuation-indicator

                https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/09/07/regression-to-trend-132-above-trend-in-august

 

                More earnings declines are likely in the offing.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/09/12/earnings-decline-likely-more-to-go-before-we-are-done

 

                As analysts shave their estimates.

            https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/s-p-500-analysts-shaving-profit-margins/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

Oracle press release (NYSE:ORCL): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.03 misses by $0.04.

Revenue of $11.45B (+17.7% Y/Y) in-line.

 

Oracle (ORCL) declares $0.32/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous

 

What I am reading today

 

            How migrants make the economy they move to a lot like the economy they left.

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/09/the-culture-transplant-how-migrants-make-the-economies-they-move-to-a-lot-like-the-ones-they-left.html

 

                        US economic freedom index sinks to Carter era level.

            https://www.aier.org/article/u-s-economic-freedom-index-collapses-to-carter-administration-levels/

 

            Another good life lesson from Traderfeed.

            http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/

 

 

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