The Morning Call---Higher for longer

 

The Morning Call

 

9/22/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Wednesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/putin-powell-pummel-markets-gold-jumps-yield-curve-inversion-nears-volcker-lows

 

Note: after spending almost two hours trying to decide if the FOMC’s latest move was a positive or negative (i.e., yoyoing back and forth around the flat line), investors apparently concluded that that it was not so good. The S&P finished below the lower boundary of its intermediate term uptrend; if it remains there through the close on Friday, it will reset to a trading range. However, as I noted yesterday, the index has challenged this trend before and bounced; so, I would await follow through before assuming stocks are going lower.

 

            When do bull markets begin?

            https://allstarcharts.com/hammered/

 

            Where are we in the presidential cycle?

            https://allstarcharts.com/chart-of-the-day-the-time-to-buy/

 

            Dollar bulls win again.

            https://allstarcharts.com/dollar-bulls-win-again/

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 213,000 versus expectations of 218,000.

 

                          August existing home sales fell 0.4% versus consensus of -2.3%.

                          https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/09/21/existing-home-sales-down-0-5-in-august-better-than-forecast

 

                        International

 

                        Other

 

                          Dysfunctional derivatives market may spark EU energy crisis.

                          https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/dysfunctional-futures-market-may-spark-next-eu-energy-crisis-liqudity-crunch-looms

 

            The Fed

 

The FOMC raised rates 75bp as expected. While the narrative in the official statement did not change much from the prior meeting, the dot plot (forecast) indicated the committee believes that rates will stay higher for longer than expected. The statement:

              https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/09/fomc-statement-raise-rates-75-bp.html

  

              The dot plot.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-3

 

              Overnight, there was a whirlwind of central bank actions (must read).

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/economic-discontent-rise-central-bank-nado-strikes-markets-overnight

 

              The squeeze on global liquidity has barely begun.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/squeeze-global-liquidity-has-barely-begun

 

            Inflation

 

              This is an interesting take on inflation (must read).

              https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2022/09/21/ill-designed_inflation_indices_guarantee_fed_policy_mistakes_854478.html

 

              Mortgage rates reach 6.25%.

              https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-mortgage-interest-rates-reach-625-highest-level-since-october-2008-2022-09-21/

                  

              Disinflationary forces are building says this analyst.

              https://www.marketwatch.com/story/disinflationary-wave-is-building-even-as-investors-anticipate-aggressive-fed-rate-increase-says-this-economist-11663705892

 

                  

              Inflation expectations---a dubious survey.

              https://ritholtz.com/2022/09/inflation-expectations-dubious/

 

              The odds of a bad outcome are rising.

              https://stephaniekelton.substack.com/p/the-odds-of-a-bad-outcome-are-rising

 

            The coronavirus

 

              It was and always has been a political ploy.

              https://brownstone.org/articles/it-ends-as-it-began-as-a-political-ploy/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

FactSet Research Systems press release (NYSE:FDS): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.13 misses by $0.08.

Revenue of $499.3M (+21.2% Y/Y) beats by $11.35M.

 

Accenture press release (NYSE:ACN): FQ4 GAAP EPS of $2.60 beats by $0.03.

of $15.42B (+14.9% Y/Y) in-line.

 

 

Accenture (NYSE:ACN) declares $1.12/share quarterly dividend, 15.5% increase from prior dividend of $0.97.

 

CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) declares $0.55/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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