Wednesday, September 7, 2022

The Morning Call---The argument for peak inflation

 

The Morning Call

 

9/7/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

            Tuesday in the charts.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tech-tumbles-worst-streak-6-years-crypto-credit-commodities-clobbered

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

 

Weekly mortgage applications fell 0.8% while purchase applications were down 0.7%.

 

Month to date retail chain store sales grew at a slower pace than in the prior week.

 

The July trade balance was -$70.7 billion versus forecasts of -$70.2 billion.

 

The August services PMI came in at 43.7 versus consensus of 44.8; the August composite PMI was 44.6 versus 45.0.

 

The August ISM nonmanufacturing Index was 56.9 versus projections of 55.1.

 

                        International

 

The third estimate of Q2 EU GDP growth was +0.8% versus estimates of +0.6%; the final Q2 employment change was +0.4% versus +0.2%.

 

The preliminary July Japanese leading economic indicators were reported at 99.6 versus predictions of 100.5.

 

July German industrial production fell 0.3% versus expectations of -0.5%.

 

The August Chinese trade balance was +$79.3 billon versus forecasts of +$92.7 billion.

 

                        Other

 

                          Update  on the housing market.

                          https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/9/4/23326772/housing-market-mortgage-rate

               

            The Fed

 

              Fed whisperer hints at 75bp hike in September.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-dip-wsj-fed-whisperer-hints-75bps-hike-sept

 

            Inflation

 

              The argument for peak inflation.

              https://www.aier.org/article/the-inflation-tide-appears-to-be-turning/

 

              OPEC+ agrees to production cuts.

              https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/05/business/opec-plus-meeting.html

           

              Europe unleashes fiscal stimulus tsunami.

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-yields-soar-markets-demand-return-printers-monetize-europes-energy-hyperinflation

 

            Geopolitics

 

              The hit that the Russian economy is taking.

              https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/09/the-hit-to-the-russian-economy-internally-assessed

 

              Russia shuts down Nord Stream pipeline.

              https://www.newsweek.com/russia-nord-stream-pipeline-shut-down-energy-ultimatum-peskov-1739893

 

     Bottom line.

 

            The latest from Morgan Stanley.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mike-wilson-sees-stocks-tumbling-3400-3-months-slashes-sp-eps-forecasts-fire-ice-shifts

 

            The Rule of 20.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/09/06/the-rule-of-20-why-the-bear-market-remains

 

            The impact of passive investing.

            https://www.ft.com/content/73a6527d-cd59-498e-9923-af5143cbb952

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

            Understanding why colleges went woke.

                        https://www.campusreform.org/article?id=20090

 

            Belgium is bankrupt.

            https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/antwerp-mayor-blasts-green-dogmatics-admits-bankrupt-belgium-new-greece

 

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