The Morning Call---Bank of England folds like a cheap umbrella

 

The Morning Call

 

9/28/22

 

 

The Market

         

    Technical

 

Tuesday in the charts.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/1932-1974-2008-and-today-stocks-enter-meltdown-crash-pattern

 

Messages from the Market.

https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/09/messages-from-the-market

 

    Fundamental

 

       Headlines

 

              The Economy

 

                        US

                           

Weekly mortgage applications declined 3.1% while purchase applications were down 0.4%

 

                          August new home sales rose 28.8% versus projections of -0.5%.

                          https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/09/new-home-sales-increase-to-685000.html

 

Preliminary August retail inventories were up 0.6% versus forecasts of up 0.1%; preliminary August wholesale inventories were up 1.3% versus +0.3%.

                               

                          September consumer confidence came in at 108 versus forecasts of 104.5.

                           https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2022/09/27/consumer-confidence-improved-in-september

                                                                        

The September Richmond Fed manufacturing index was reported at 0 versus expectations of -3.

 

                        International

 

Final July Japanese leading economic indicators were 98.4 versus consensus of 99.6.

 

The October German consumer confidence index was -42.5 versus predictions of -37.8.

                         

                        Other

 

                          Jobs are a cost, not a benefit.

                          https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/jobs-are-a-cost-not-a-benefit-2

 

                          OECD warns of pervasive global slowdown.

                          https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/oecd-interim-economic-outlook-warns-of-pervasive-global-economic-slowdown.htm

 

                          China growth to fall behind the rest of Asia.

                          https://www.ft.com/content/ef425da7-0f94-484a-9f0c-40991be70ccc

 

            The Fed

 

              Sins of the Fed.

              https://alhambrapartners.com/2022/09/26/weekly-market-pulse-jerome-powell-tough-guy/

 

              The bond vigilantes are back.

              https://www.yardeniquicktakes.com/the-bond-vigilantes-theyre-baaaack/

 

              The Bank of England capitulates. (must read)

              https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bank-england-capitulates-restarts-qe-due-significant-dysfunction-bond-market-material-risk

           

            Fiscal Policy

 

              The federal government is spending trillions and losing trillions.

              https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3658178-the-government-is-not-only-spending-trillions-its-losing-trillions/

 

              An  analysis of the cost of the student loan forgiveness program.

              https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2022/09/analyze-this-44.php

 

            Geopolitics

              More on the Nord Stream II pipeline incident.

              https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/09/the-war-on-germany-just-entered-its-hot-phase.html

 

     Bottom line

 

            Update on the Buffett indicator.

            https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/09/27/buffett-indicator-says-markets-are-going-to-crash

 

            Surging interest rates are a critical risk factor.

            https://www.capitalspectator.com/surging-real-yields-are-a-critical-risk-factor-again/

 

            Jeffrey Gundlach starts nibbling at bonds.

            https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/gundlach-starts-buying-as-10-year-us-yields-set-for-record-spike?srnd=premium&sref=loFkkPMQ

 

           Accepting a negative metric in order to achieve a positive outcome.

           https://behaviouralinvestment.com/2022/09/27/something-has-to-hurt/

 

          What is in your control and what is not.

          https://ritholtz.com/2022/09/what-is-in-your-control/

 

    News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

 

 

 

What I am reading today

 

           

 

 

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